基于GIS的内蒙古春小麦干热风风险精细化区划  

Refined Risk Division of Dry-hot Wind Disaster for Spring Wheat in Inner Mongolia Based on GIS

作　　者：杨志捷 金林雪[2] 武荣盛[2] 王惠贞[2] 吴瑞芬[2] YANG Zhijie;JIN Linxue;WU Rongsheng;WANG Huizhen;WU Ruifen(Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot 010050, China;Center of Ecology and Agricultural Meteorology of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010050, China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象局,内蒙古呼和浩特010050 [2]内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010050

出　　处：《干旱气象》2019年第5期866-872,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重大自然灾害监测预警与防范专项(2018YFC1506606);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201808);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2018MS04005);内蒙古自治区科技创新引导项目(KCBJ2018065)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1981-2010年内蒙古地区春小麦抽穗至成熟期间(6-8月)119站逐日气象观测资料、农业气象观测站和春小麦品种试验的发育期观测资料以及1987-2015年春小麦播种面积、产量和单产资料等,结合地理信息数据及第二次土地调查数据,依据自然灾害风险评估理论,开展内蒙古春小麦干热风风险精细化区划与评估,并提出趋利避害的建议。结果表明:内蒙古西部区的阿拉善盟、巴彦淖尔市北部及鄂尔多斯市西北部春小麦发生干热风灾害的风险最高,大兴安岭山区、东部偏南区西部的燕山丘陵及阴山南麓发生干热风灾害的风险最低,其余地区为风险中值区及中低值区。区划结果与内蒙古各地春小麦千粒重及产量变化的实际情况较吻合,可为春小麦干热风灾害防御提供参考。Based on daily meteorological observation data from 119 weather stations from the heading to the maturity stages(from June to August) of spring wheat, agro-meteorological observation data from 11 agro-meteorology stations and wheat varieties tests from 1981 to 2010, sown area and yield of spring wheat from 1987 to 2015 in Inner Mongolia, and combined geographic information data and the second national land survey data, the refined risk of dry-hot wind disaster for spring wheat in Inner Mongolia was evaluated according to natural disasters systematic analysis theory, and some suggestions that was suitable for planting of spring wheat were put forward. The results show that the dry-hot wind risk of spring wheat in western region of Inner Mongolia including Alxa League, northern Bayannur city and northwestern Ordos city was the highest, while that in mountainous area of Great Khingan, Yanshan hilly area, southern slope of Yinshan mountain was the lowest. The dry-hot wind risks in other regions were in moderate level to moderate-low level. The precision of dry-hot wind risk division of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia was higher, which was well consistent with the change of thousand-seed weight and yield of spring wheat. The division result can reflect actual situation in Inner Mongolia as a whole and provide important references for preventing dry-hot wind disaster of spring wheat.

关 键 词：春小麦 干热风 模型构建 区划 内蒙古 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S42[农业科学—植物保护]