利用统计检验对比法对克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增水作业效果再分析  

Analysis of the Effect of Aircraft Artificial Water-Increasing Operation in Winter in Karamay City by Statistical Test Comparison Method

作　　者：郑博华[1] 李圆圆 赵克明 兰文杰 ZHENG Bohua;LI Yuanyuan;ZHAO Keming;LAN Wenjie(Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830002, China;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China;Karamay Meteorological Bureau, Karamay 834000, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]克拉玛依市气象局,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2019年第5期132-138,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆人工影响天气科学技术研究开放基金项目(RYJ201708);克拉玛依市科技计划项目(SK2016-45)

摘　　要：利用1961—2017年新疆塔城地区塔城站(对比区)、克拉玛依市克拉玛依区气象站(目标区)57a12月份的降水量资料,运用不成对秩和检验、序列试验检验和t检验等数理统计方法,结合对比区对目标区1988年起开展飞机人工增水作业前历史期27a和作业期30a的12月降水量进行了客观定量地统计对比差异评估分析。结果表明:(1)运用非参数性不成对秩和检验法,对比区增水显著性水平低于0.05,而目标区增水显著性达到0.025。(2)使用序列试验法,虽然在降水绝对增加值上目标区远不及对比区,但从相对增加率可以明显看出,开展飞机人工增水后目标区大于对比区,两者相差11.57%。(3)利用单边检验,对比区t显著性小于0.05,而目标区t显著性为0.025;选定α=90%的置信区间,对比区平均12月份降水量绝对增加值为3.57mm,相对增加率为16.5%,而目标区绝对降水增加值为1.19mm,相对增加率为26.0%,高于对比区增加率9.5%。开展冬季飞机增水以来,目标区降水量增量显著增长。Using the observation data of precipitation in Tacheng station (contrast area), Karamay district station (target area) from December 1961 to 2017, with using unpaired rank sum test, sequence test and t-test method, etc., the statistical analysis of the statistical variation of the precipitation in the historical period 27 a before the winter aircraft artificial water influencing operation and the December 30 a in the operation period was carried out, and the effect of water increasing by 30 a in the contrast area was evaluated objectively and quantitatively. The results show that:(1) Utilizing the nonparametric unpaired rank sum test, after the artificial water increase in winter, the significance level of the comparison area is lower than 0.05, and the target area reaches 0.025.(2) Using the sequence test method, although the target area is far less than the contrast area in the absolute increase value, it can be clearly seen from the relative increase rate that the target area is larger than the contrast area after the aircraft artificial water increase, and the difference between the two is 11.57%.(3) Applying the unilateral test, the contrast area t is less than 0.05, and the target area t also reaches 0.025;when selected significance level is 0.1 confidence interval, after the winter aircraft operating, contrast area, the absolute increase of precipitation in December is 3.57 mm, the relative increase rate is 16.5%, and the absolute increase in target area is 1.19 mm, the relative increase rate is 26.0%, which is 9.5% higher than that compared with the contrast area. It can be obtained that the effect of precipitation increase in the target area is obvious after the aircraft artificial water-increasing operation in winter.

关 键 词：飞机人工增水 对比区 目标区 统计分析 效果评估 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]