中国14个集中连片特困地区县域自我发展能力测度与乡村振兴战略瞄准研究  

Estimation of County’s Self-Development Capacity and Research on Targeting of Rural Revitalization Strategy in 14 Concentrated Destitute Areas in China

作　　者：徐孝勇[1] 曾恒源 XU Xiao-yong;ZENG Heng-yuan(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2019年第5期684-692,共9页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14XJL002)

摘　　要：基于人地关系地域系统理论构建衡量我国14个集中连片特困地区县域自我发展能力的指标体系,运用BP神经网络模型和ArcGIS软件测算14片特困区2015-2017年县域自我发展能力并分析其时空演变趋势,通过标准差分类法和聚类分析法识别出459个(4类)乡村振兴重点帮扶县。研究发现:自我发展能力越低的县贫困程度越深,深度贫困县主要分布在高原高寒区、喀斯特地区、老少边区和三级阶梯过渡地区;以临沧-齐齐哈尔为分界线,可将14片特困区分为分界线东侧自我发展能力高分片区、分界线上自我发展能力中值片区和分界线西侧自我发展能力低分片区;459个重点帮扶县可划分为综合能力制约县、资源环境承载能力制约县、社会发展能力制约县和人力资本生产能力制约县4种类型;依据不同帮扶县类型制定具有针对性的扶持政策是新时期推进贫困县域经济发展和乡村振兴的必然选择。Based on the theory of regional system of human-land relationship,the article constructed an index system to measure the self-development capacity in 14 concentrated destitute areas in China.Based on Back Propagation neural network model and ArcGIS,the paper calculatesd their self-development capacity and describes their Spatial and temporal variation of self-development capacity.The paper identified the 459 Rural Revitalization key counties through standard deviation classification and cluster analysis.The result shows that the lower the self-development capacity is,the poorer the county will be;the most poverty-stricken counties are mostly distributed in plateau cold areas,karst areas,old revolutionary base areas,minority areas and border areas.With the Lincang-Qiqihar as the demarcation line,the 14 areas can be classified into high self-development capacity areas to its east,median self-development capacity areas on the line and low self-development capacity areas to its west;the 459 counties can be divided into 4 restricted types:counties constrained by comprehensive capacity,resources and environment carrying capacity,social development capacity and human capital production capacity respectively.Making targeted support policies accordingly is inevitable to promote the economic development and rural revitalization of underdeveloped counties.

关 键 词：集中连片特困地区 自我发展能力 人地关系地域系统 重点帮扶县 乡村振兴 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]