中国农民储蓄的F.Modigliani生命周期分析  

An Analysis on Saving Behavior of Chinese Farmer Using Modigliani Life-cycle Model

作　　者：宋建军[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学系,广东广州510320

出　　处：《广东商学院学报》2002年第5期62-66,共5页Journal of Guangdong University of Business Studies

摘　　要：经济学诺贝尔奖获得者F .Modigliani的生命周期模型开创消费与储蓄理论的新篇章。但该模型暗含的前提不符合中国农民的生活条件。修改前提将F .Modigliani的分析方法应用于中国农民的储蓄 ,可导出三个蕴含中国农民生活特征的简化模型 :一个两代人力储蓄的周期模型 ,直观地描述了贫困循环的微观经济机制 ;含有子女的三代人力储蓄的周期模型表明农民多生子女是农民长期福利最大化的要求 ;收入增长的周期模型确定了中国农民人力储蓄崩溃的条件。The Nobel prize winner F. Modigliani's life cycle model is the basic theory for analyzing consuming and saving activities, but the hypothesis of this model is not suitable to Chinese farmers. Using a modified Modigliani model, this paper analyzes Chinese farmer's saving behavior. With a three generation saving model, the paper shows that to bring up more children is the request of farmer's long term welfare maximizing target, and the cycle model with increased income is the determining condition of the breakdown of Chinese farmer's manpower saving.

关 键 词：中国 农民 储蓄 F.Modigliani模型 生命周期 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学]