密云水库入库径流变化趋势及动因分析  

Evolution Trend of Miyun Reservoir Inflow and Its Motivating Factors Analysis

作　　者：高迎春[1] 姚治君[1] 刘宝勤[1] 吕爱锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2002年第6期546-553,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KXCX-SW-317);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程项目领域前沿(CXIOG-A00-07)资助

摘　　要：运用回归分析和多种曲线拟合方法,对密云水库近几十年来的入库径流时间系列进行了分析,结果表明,入库径流总体上呈指数减少趋势,洪峰流量从绝对流量和所占比例两个方面都有大幅度的减少,而且洪水减少程度高于一般径流减少程度。同时,变化过程中表现出明显的阶段性。分析认为,气候变化对入库径流减少的影响较小,而流域内人口的增加和土地利用变化是入库径流减少的主要驱动因子。Stochastic hydrology methods are used to analyze the characteristics of annual inflow evolution of Miyun reservoir. The result has shown that the amount of annual inflow of the Miyun reservoir tends to decrease exponentially from 1954 to 1990 in general. Moreover, flood peak decreases extremely in both quantity and proportion, and its decreasing extent is higher than that of common runoff. At the mean time, evolution trend shows apparent periods. In order to find out the motivating factors of annual inflow evolution, we analyzed the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Through correlation analyzing, it is quite clear that the change of annual inflow was partly dependent on precipitation. But the precipitation is not the major motivating force of the evolution, and climate changes have only little influence to inflow decreasing. The annual inflow of Miyun reservoir responds directly to human activities, especially after 1960. Experimental result shows that it is obvious that the annual inflow decreasing is mainly caused by human activities, such as extreme population increase and land use changes.

关 键 词：密云水库 径流 变化趋势 动因分析 回归分析 土地利用 气候变化 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]