近50年我国极端降水时空变化特征综述  

Review on spatio-temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in China in the past 50 years

作　　者：程诗悦 秦伟[2,3] 郭乾坤[2,3] 徐立荣 CHENG Shiyue;QIN Wei;GUO Qiankun;XU Lirong(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,250022,Jinan,China;Department of Sediment Research,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,100048,Beijing,China;Research Center on Soil and Water Conservation of the Ministry of Water Resource,100048,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,济南250022 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院泥沙研究所,北京100048 [3]水利部水土保持生态工程技术研究中心,北京100048

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2019年第3期155-161,共7页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“横断山地水土作用失衡机制与灾害风险评价”(2015CB452704);中国科协青年人才托举工程(2015—2017)

摘　　要：全球变暖背景下,我国极端降水事件频发,引发严重水土流失事件,并造成重大损失;因此,开展极端降水及其时空变化特征研究对明晰极端降水变化规律、指导水土保持规划和治理等工作具有重要现实意义。目前,我国基于不同时空尺度的极端降水及其变化趋势的研究已取得丰富的成果,但对这些成果的总结和提炼不足,不利于正确认识我国极端降水规律。笔者通过搜集大量相关文献,对我国极端降水的时空变化特征进行分析,认为整体上我国极端降水事件呈增加趋势,但华北、东北和西北东部等地区呈减小趋势。研究表明,我国目前极端降水研究具有以下薄弱环节:1)气象站点密度普遍偏小;2)地形因素对极端降水的影响考虑不足;3)点状和面状降水数据结合不够紧密——从而造成不同学者在同一区域的研究结论往往不尽相同,一定程度上降低了研究结论的可靠性和可比性,也使得研究成果对实践工作的指导能力不足。建议后续研究应加密气象站点、充分考虑复杂地形条件对极端降水的影响以及加强点状和面状降雨数据的结合,以期获得更为准确的极端降水时空变化规律,增强对水土保持、防汛抗旱和水利工程防护等实践工作的指导作用。[Background]Extreme precipitation events occurred frequently in China due to the climate change and global warming,resulting in severe soil erosion events and huge property and personnel losses,such as the torrential rains in Wudinghe Basin in 2017. Thus, studies on the extreme precipitation events and their spatial-temporal variations are of great importance for soil and water conservation planning and management. Currently,there are abundant researches on this issue across China,however,the results of these studies have not been fully and comprehensively analyzed,which limited us for better understanding the extreme precipitation events in China. [Methods]In this study,s researches on extreme precipitation in China have been collected,important information such as the extreme precipitation indices,diagnostic methods for trend analysis,interpolation methods for spatial interpolation,and the results on spatial-temporal variations were extracted from literatures according to different regions of China and then, summarized and compared with each other with carefulness.[Results]After the comprehensively review of published literature,it is found that the spatial-temporal trends were mainly analyzed based on daily precipitation from meteorological stations and a nonsignificant increasing trend for extreme precipitation was reported on the national scale,of which,the increasing trends were mainly in South China and Southwest China,while the decreasing trends in North China,Northwest China and Northwest China. However,there are still some deficiencies which may limit the further researches: first,currently the densities of rain gauges in many studies are usually sparse;second,the effects of topographical factors on extreme precipitation are usually not taken consideration,probably due to the rain gauges are sited preferably in the flatland;third,the spatial-temporal trends may be greatly affected by the inter-decadal quasi-periodic oscillations in rainfall since the study period in many studies are relatively short. Th

关 键 词：极端降水事件 极端降水指标 时空变化特征 地形 气象站点密度 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]