经济周期与长期经济增长——中国的经验和特点(1978-2018)  

Economic Cycle and Long-term Economic Growth ——China’s Experience and Characteristics (1978—2018)

作　　者：刘伟[1] 蔡志洲[2] LIU Wei;CAI Zhizhou(Renmin University of China,Beijing,China;Peking University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,100872 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济学动态》2019年第7期20-36,共17页Economic Perspectives

摘　　要：经济周期是经济增长中的各种矛盾在总量上的反映。在克服矛盾的同时总结历史经验、深化经济改革、改善宏观管理和调控,使我国实现了一轮又一轮经济发展水平上的提升,社会主义市场经济制度和机制也在不断完善。应对经济周期的过程也是中国经济不断发展和提升的过程。在进入第四个经济周期之后,中国经济开始了由高速增长向高质量发展的转化。目前各方面的调整已经比较充分,为新一轮经济增长创造了条件。从长期发展看,中国经济发展仍然处于重要发展机遇期,具备经济发展的比较优势,能够实现全面现代化的目标。改革开放后,随着市场化改革不断推进,中国也开始出现市场经济基础上由供需总量失衡所带来的经济周期。从主要宏观指标上看,尤其是从经济增长率和通货膨胀率的波动上看,可以分成四次大的周期。With the continuous advancement of market-oriented reform since the reform and opening up, China has also begun to experience the economic cycles brought about by the imbalance of total supply and demand in market economy. Judging from major macroeconomic indicators, especially from the fluctuations of economic growth rate and inflation rate, the Chinese economy has gone through four major cycles. Economic cycles are reflections of various contradictions in total supply and demand during the process of economic growth. While overcoming the contradictions, China has summarized historical experience, deepened economic reform, and improved macroeconomic management and regulation. As a result, China has been upgrading its economic development level round after round, and constantly improving the system and mechanism of socialist market economy. The process of coping with the economic cycles is also a process of continuous development and improvement of the Chinese economy. After entering the fourth economic cycle, China started to shift from high-speed economic growth to high-quality development. So far, the adjustments in all fields have become quite adequate, creating good conditions for a new round of economic growth. From the perspective of long-term development, the Chinese economy is still in an important period of development opportunities. With various comparative advantages in economic development, China can achieve the goal of comprehensive modernization.

关 键 词：经济增长 经济周期 全面现代化 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]