走滑型断层地表永久位移预测模型研究  

Study on prediction model of surface permanent displacementof strike-slip faults

作　　者：荆旭 JING Xu(Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center,MEE,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部核与辐射安全中心

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2019年第2期18-23,共6页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(项目编号:2017YFC1500804)

摘　　要：论述了断层地表永久位移概率地震危险性分析方法的发展过程和应用现状,指出了断层地表破裂预测模型研究的意义。根据我国最近的活动断层地表破裂震后调查结果,基于走滑型断层地表破裂数据,拟合了地表破裂预测模型。采用地震活动性模型和地表破裂预测模型,计算了则木河断裂地表迹线上的永久位移危险性曲线,对预测模型在工程场地地震危险性分析中的应用,提出了建议。The development and state-of-art for the probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessments method were reviewed,and pointed out the significance for prediction model of fault surface rupture displacements.Based on fault displacement data from survey after large earthquakes in China during current years,the fault displacement prediction models were developed.Based on the seismic activity model and above prediction models,the hazard curves of surface permanent displacement on Zemu River fault were calculated,and the application of the prediction models in seismic hazard analysis of engineering site was suggested.

关 键 词：核设施地震安全 地震危险性分析 断层地表位移预测模型 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]