消费者信心传导对货币政策影响研究——基于动物精神的理论解释  

A Study on the Impact of Consumer Confidence Conduction on Monetary Policy——Theoretical Interpretation Based on Animal Spirit

作　　者：宿玉海[1] 孙晓芹[1] 刘梦珣 SU Yu-hai;SUN Xiao-qin;LIU Meng-xun(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2019年第8期3-16,共14页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BGJ004)

摘　　要：本文基于动物精神视角,研究了消费者信心是否影响以及如何影响我国货币政策传导。通过运用多元线性回归模型和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现消费者信心能够影响货币政策目标变量的波动。将消费者信心分解为基本面信心和动物精神,通过构造BVAR模型发现动物精神能够带来包括产出、消费、价格水平和经济发展在内的货币政策目标值的短期波动。同时,动物精神也受到货币政策中介目标变量的冲击。并提出为进一步提高货币政策传导的效率,在制定货币政策时应当将消费者信心指数纳入考量范围,并增强货币政策稳定性,增加货币政策的透明度,以及加强舆论引导作用。Based on the perspective of animal spirit,this paper studies whether consumer confidence affects the transmission of monetary policy and how it affects the transmission of monetary policy in China.By using multiple linear regression model and Granger causality test,it is found that consumer confidence can affect the fluctuation of monetary policy target variables.This paper decomposes consumer confidence into basic confidence and animal spirit.By constructing BVAR model,we find that animal spirit can bring short-term fluctuation of monetary policy target value including output,consumption,price level and economic development.At the same time,animal spirit is also impacted by the intermediate target variables of monetary policy.In order to further improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission,consumer confidence index should be taken into account in the formulation of monetary policy and the stability of monetary policy should be strengthened.The transparency of monetary policy should be increased and the guiding role of public opinion should be strengthened.

关 键 词：消费者信心 动物精神 货币政策 信心传导渠道 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]