第二松花江上游白山水库极值峰年长期预报方法研究  

Long-term prediction method research for the extremum peak year of Baishan Reservoir in the upper Second Songhua River

作　　者：李文龙 李秀斌 王傲 LI Wenlong;LI Xiubin;WANG Ao(Jilin Baishan Hydropower Plant of State Grid Xin Yuan Company Limited,Songhuajiang Hydraopower Co.,Ltd.,Jilin 132013,Jilin,China;Jilin Fengman Hydropower Plant of State Grid Xin Yuan Company Limited,Songhuajiang Hydraopower Co.,Ltd.,Jilin 132013,Jilin,China;Changchun Branch of Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Jilin Province,Changchun 130022,Jilin,China)

机构地区：[1]松花江水力发电有限公司吉林丰满发电厂,吉林吉林132013 [2]松花江水力发电有限公司吉林白山发电厂,吉林吉林132013 [3]吉林省长春市水文局,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2019年第6期29-36,共8页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国网新源控股有限公司科学技术项目(XQJH1885000061);国家自然基金中韩国际合作项目(51711540299)

摘　　要：针对极值峰年对水库防洪度汛的影响特别大的特点,为了达到更好地解决防洪与兴利矛盾的目的,开展白山水库极值峰年长期预报方法的研究工作。依据可公度性理论,构建了平均为60a、53a、44a、25a和19a等5个周期的可公度网络结构图,以春汛前兆相似年,进行极值峰年来水量级的预报。研究显示:当这5个周期共振叠加到一起的时期,就是下一个极值峰年的高发期及高发年,用来进行极值峰年发生时间的预报;对8a历史极值峰年进行预报检验,综合预报合格率为81.25%。结果表明:白山水库极值峰年长期预报方法预报精度较高,在考虑预报误差的情况下,可以在生产实际中进行应用;用5周期共振加前兆方法对未来12a(2019-2030年)作了极值峰年预报,预计2020年、2024年、2026年和2030年为极值峰年高发年。Aiming at the problem that extremum peak year has a great influence on flood control and dispatch of reservoir,in order to better solve the contradiction between flood control and profit,the long-term forecasting method of extremum peak year of Baishan Reservoir is studied.The research shows that based on the theory of commensurability,a network structure map with 5 periods,60 years,53 years,44 years,25 years and 19 years has been constructed;When these five periods are superimposed together,they are the high occurrence period and the high occurrence year of the next extremum peak year,which are used to forecast the occurrence time of the extreme value peak year,and to forecast the water level of the extreme value peak year with the historical similar year.We have a forecast test for the eight extremum peak years of history,comprehensive forecast qualification rate is 81.25%;Extreme peak year forecasts are made for the next 12 years(2019-2030),that 2019,2024,2026 and 2030 year have the high frequency to be the extremum peak year.

关 键 词：极值峰年 长期径流预报 第二松花江流域 白山水库 

分 类 号：P933[天文地球—自然地理学]