R/S和Mann-Kendall法在济南市地下水管理模型中的应用  

The Application of R/S and Mann-Kendall Methods in Groundwater Management Model in Jinan City

作　　者：齐欢 QI Huan(Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment,Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省地质矿产勘查开发局八〇一水文地质工程地质大队 [2]山东省地质矿产勘查开发局地下水资源与环境重点实验室

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2019年第8期20-25,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：山东地矿重大科技攻关项目(2012-045);国家自然科学基金项目(41472216),国家自然科学基金项目(41772257)

摘　　要：降水是济南泉水的重要补给来源,对泉水的喷涌起到举足轻重的作用。利用1956-2017年济南市降水量数据,采用R/S法和Mann-Kendall分析预测济南市年降水量的趋势特征,并将预测结果应用于济南市地下水管理模型中。结果表明:济南市未来处于降水较多时期,以丰水年为主。生态补源对济南市水源地开采岩溶地下水起到积极的作用;从经济方面考虑,生态补源存在用水量大、费用高、地下水利用率低的问题,因此建议尽量不增采岩溶地下水,同时可以利用丰水期水库放水对河流的补给,科学合理的适当开采岩溶地下水,满足济南市人民饮用优质地下水的需求。Rainfall is an important source of recharge for Jinan spring water,and plays a decisive role in spring water gushing.Based on the precipitation data of Jinan City from 1956 to 2017,the trend characteristics of annual precipitation in Jinan City were predicted by R/S method and Mann-Kendall analysis,and the prediction results were applied to the groundwater management model of Jinan City.The results show that Jinan will be in a period of more precipitation in the future,mainly in the year of plentiful water.Ecological recharge plays an active role in the exploitation of karst groundwater in the water source area of Jinan City.From the economic point of view,the ecological supplement source has the problems of large water consumption,high cost and low utilization rate of groundwater.Therefore,it is recommended that no karst groundwater be added as much as possible.It can make use of the water supply from the reservoir during the flood season to replenish the river,and scientifically and rationally exploit the karst groundwater to meet the needs of the people of Jinan to drink high-quality groundwater.

关 键 词：R/S MANN-KENDALL 地下水管理模型 济南市 

分 类 号：TV211.12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]