价格波动情境下不同规模养猪场户的相机选择行为差异——对缓解生猪价格大幅波动的思考  

Differences in Opportunity Selection Behaviors of Pig Farms and Households with Different Scales under Price Fluctuations——Thoughts on Mitigating the Large Fluctuation of Pig Prices

作　　者：沈鑫琪 乔娟[1] SHEN Xinqi;QIAO Juan

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第5期54-62,167,168,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于循环经济视角的畜禽养殖废弃物治理模式与支持政策研究”(18BGL169);现代农业产业技术体系北京市生猪产业创新团队(BAIC02)产业经济岗位项目

摘　　要：养猪场户应对价格波动的相机选择行为及其一致性程度是影响我国生猪供给及价格波动的关键。利用河北、辽宁和北京等北方三省市养猪场户的调研数据,采用列联表和Multivariate probit模型对价格波动情境下不同规模养猪场户的相机选择行为差异进行实证研究。结果发现:(1)养猪场户应对价格波动的相机选择行为以变动饲养规模和出栏时间为主,变动生产投入为辅;价格上涨时倾向扩大饲养规模、延迟出栏和增加生产投入,价格下跌时倾向缩小饲养规模、提前出栏和减少生产投入。(2)不同规模养猪场户的相机选择行为存在差异,规模较大的养猪场户在价格波动时变动饲养规模、出栏时间和生产投入的行为倾向比规模较小的养猪场户低,尤其是变动生产投入和饲养规模的行为倾向显著偏低。(3)养猪场户的相机选择行为在价格涨跌时不对称,价格下跌时不同规模养猪场户选择变动饲养规模的行为倾向及行为的一致性程度高于价格上涨时,而选择变动出栏时间和生产投入的行为倾向及行为的一致性程度低于价格上涨时。据此得到推进养殖规模化有助于平抑生猪价格大幅波动尤其是周期性波动幅度,但对周期性波幅的平抑效应在价格涨跌时不对称等启示。The behaviors of pig farms and households and the consistency degree of these behaviors in responding to price fluctuations are the key to the stablization of the supply and price fluctuations of pigs in China.,This paper presents an empirical study on the differences in opportunity selection behaviors of pig farms and households with different scales against price fluctuations using the contingency table and multivariate probit model based on the survey data of pig farms and households in Hebei,Liaoning and Beijing.The results showed that:1)The behaviors of pig farms and households in responding to price fluctuations are mainly changes of scale and slaughter time,supplemented by the change of production input;they tend to expand the scale,delay the slaughter time and increase production input when price rises,and tend to shrink the scale,advance the slaughter time and reduce production input when price falls.2)There are differences in opportunity selection behaviors of pig farms and households with different scales.The large-scale pig farms and households’behavior tendency of changing the scale,slaughter time and production input against price fluctuations is slighter than that of small-scale pig farms and households,and there is a significant difference with respect to scale and production input.3)The opportunity selection behavior of pig farms and households is asymmetric when price rises or falls.The behavior tendency and its consistency degree of changing the scale among pig farms and households with different scales when price falls are greater than those when price rises,while the behavior tendency and its consistency degree of changing the slaughter time and production input are slighter when price falls than those when price rises.Therefore,promoting the pig breeding scale is helpful to smooth down the large fluctuations of pig prices,especially the cyclical fluctuations range,but the effect on cyclical fluctuations is asymmetric when price rises or falls.

关 键 词：价格波动 养殖规模 养猪场户 相机选择行为 行为差异 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]