气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略研究  

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water management and its coping strategies

作　　者：许迪[1,2] 李益农[1,2] 龚时宏[1,2] 张宝忠[1,2] Xu Di;Li Yinong;Gong Shihong;Zhang Baozhong(National Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Control,China Institute of Water Resources&Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;National Center of Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心,北京100048

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2019年第14期79-89,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2011BAD25B00,2012BAD08B00,2014BAD12B00);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201501016)

摘　　要：气候变化导致全球年平均气温上升、降水模式变化、河流特性改变、极端气候事件频发等,显现出其对农业水资源和农业生产造成的影响,使全球尤其是干旱和半干旱地区可持续农业发展和现代农业水管理面临重大挑战。该文介绍气候变化下的极端气候事件发生,评价气候变化通过气温和降水的改变以及极端气候事件频度和程度加剧等各种方式对农业用水可利用量和水质以及作物需水造成的影响,阐述气候变化通过水要素对灌溉用水、可用耕地、作物产量带来的影响,综述气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略,提出在气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略研究上,应认真考虑气候变化对农业水管理影响的尺度效应和不确定性,从而有助于因地制宜地制定和合理选用农业水管理应对策略;应积极构建基于多模型集成模式的气候变化对农业水管理影响的综合评估方法,从而有利于改善综合预测评估结果的准确性和可靠性;应深入进行农业水管理应对策略的适应-减缓利弊权衡研究和协同效用分析,从而有效改进和提高应对策略的效用。建议国内应该加强对综合评估方法和效用分析的研究力度。Climate change has led to an increase in globally average annual temperature,changes in regional precipitation patterns,changes in river characteristics,and frequently occurrence of extreme climatic events,and so on,showing its inevitable influence to agricultural water resources and agricultural production worldwide.The events above pose great challenge to the sustainable development of agriculture and modern agricultural water management in the world,especially in the arid and semi-arid regions.This paper introduced the occurrence of extreme weather events under climate change,mainly pointing out the adverse effects of drought and flooding on the global agricultural production,and evaluated the effects of climate change on the availability and quality of agricultural water resources and the water requirements for crops caused by climate change,which included the changing patterns of temperature and precipitation,as well as the frequency and extent of extreme weather events.The impacts of climate change on the surface water,groundwater,snow and glaciers,the causes for the changes of water quality,and the differences in crop water requirements across the globe were highlighted.Besides,the paper also explained the effects of climate change on farming and animal husbandry,mainly referring to the irrigation water,available cultivated land area,crop production,livestock water demands and herbage production,caused by water elements.And then reviewed the coping strategies to agriculture water management under the circumstance of climate change,including selection of coping strategies and performance evaluation of agricultural water management,analysis of adaptation-mitigation trade off,and climate risk management mechanism.Based on the research of climate change on agricultural water management and its coping strategies,the paper set forth to the following suggestions.Firstly,scale effect and uncertainties in the influence of climate change to agricultural water management need to be considered,thereby proper strategy

关 键 词：气候变化 农业 水资源 农业水管理 农业生产 应对策略 适应 减缓 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV93[农业科学—农业工程]