人口政策与生育率的关系研究——基于国际比较视角  

Research on the Relationship between Population Policy and Fertility Rate:International Comparative Perspective

作　　者：陶霞飞 TAO Xia-fei(Zhou Enlai Government School of Management,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院

出　　处：《西北人口》2019年第5期80-93,共14页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“流动人口管理和服务对策研究”(12JZD022)

摘　　要：文章分析了20世纪50年代以来世界平均生育率的变化及世界人口政策的演变趋势,并以总和生育率1.5、1.8以及2.4为界限,将国家和地区分为四类,从中挑选出韩国、中国、印度和加纳,对其生育率的变化及人口政策的演变进行梳理分析。同时,还选取了2016年生育率上升至1.5的德国,对其90年代以来家庭政策的发展及生育率的变化进行了梳理和分析,以探究家庭政策和生育率的关系。对比分析表明,人口政策与生育率之间的关系是复杂的动态双向关系。人口政策是一个地区极端生育率的制度反应,同时影响生育率变化。抑制生育的人口政策作用较为明显且稳健,而刺激生育的政策作用较微弱。作为一个长时段跨区域研究,对生育率与人口政策的分析横跨了所有生育率类别国家,通过对比不同类型的国家的人口政策与生育率关系,揭示了生育率与人口政策的复杂关系。This research analyzes the changes in the world average fertility rate and the evolution of the world population policy since the 1950 s,and classifies countries and regions based on the total fertility rates line of 1.5,1.8,and2.4,and selected South Korea,China,India,and Ghana for a review of their fertility changes and the evolution of population policies. Addition to this,this research also selected Germany,whose fertility rate rose to 1.5 in 2016,and analyzed the development of family policy and the change of fertility rate since the 1990 s to explore the relationship between family policy and fertility rate. The analysis in this research shows that the relationship between population policy and fertility rate is a complex dynamic two-way relationship. Population policy is an institutional response to regional fertility rate,and the change of fertility rate is affected by population policy. The function of anti-fertility policy is obvious and robust,while the influence of pro-fertility policy is trivial. As a long-term cross-regional study,this research analyzes the fertility rate and population policy across all kind of fertility countries. By comparing the relationship between population policy and fertility in different types of countries,it reveals the complex relationship between fertility and population policy.

关 键 词：人口政策 生育率 家庭政策 国际比较 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]