基于模糊层次分析法的大坝风险评价方法研究  

Study on dam risk assessment based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：周端祺 周志维[2] ZHOU Duanqi;ZHOU Zhiwei(Luyuan Reservoir Administration of Wan'an County of Jiangxi Province,Wanan 343800,China;Jiangxi Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]万安县芦源水库管理局,江西万安343800 [2]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《江西水利科技》2019年第4期235-240,246,共7页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

摘　　要：本文通过构建大坝风险指标体系,提出了基于层次分析法,以脆弱度为依据,以模糊数学为工具的大坝风险评价方法,最终通过隶属度确定水库的风险分类.对大余县4座水库开展风险分析,计算结果表明,大中型水库的风险属于较低风险,而小型水库属于高风险.研究表明,利用脆弱度建立的模糊评价方法能够较为客观反映水库的风险状况,为大坝风险评价提供新途径.Based on the fragility degree and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),a dam risk assessment method using fuzzy mathematics as a tool is proposed in this paper.The risk classification of reservoirs is determined by the degree of membership.Risk analysis of four reservoirs in Dayu county shows that the risk of large and medium-sized reservoirs is low,while that of small reservoirs is high.The study shows that the fuzzy evaluation method based on vulnerability can objectively reflect the risk ranking of reservoirs and provide a new way for risk assessment of dams.

关 键 词：脆弱度 模糊数学 指标体系 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]