华北云特征参数与降水相关性的研究  

Study on Correlation Between Cloud Characteristic Parameters and Precipitation in North China

作　　者：王磊[1,2] 周毓荃 蔡淼[3] 申双和[4] Wang Lei;Zhou Yuquan;Cai Miao;Shen Shuanghe(Shijiazhuang Meteorological Office,Shijiazhuang 050081,China;College of Applied Meteorology,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄市气象局,石家庄050081 [2]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [4]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2019年第3期9-16,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YF0601701);河北省科技计划项目(17227001D、14227003D)

摘　　要：利用河北省、河南省和山西省2013-2014年的每日10-15时逐时FY2E卫星反演得到的云结构特征参数和地面小时降水,统计分析了云顶高度、云顶温度、云光学厚度和云粒子有效半径等4类云结构特征参数与地面降水的关系。主要结论有:随着云光学厚度的增加,降水概率呈增加趋势。云光学厚度比其他云参数对降水更具有指示意义,当云光学厚度大于20时,降水概率显著增大。双参数、多参数组合下,对地面是否出现降水的判断和识别要优于单个云参数的判别结果。4类云参数中,云光学厚度与降水强度呈正相关关系,对降水强度的影响最为显著;云顶温度和云顶高度对降水强度的影响次之;云粒子有效半径与降水强度的关系不明显。地面降水时,当云光学厚度小于20或云光学厚度介于21-30、云顶温度大于-15℃时,出现小雨的概率最大;当云光学厚度介于21-30、云顶温度小于-15℃或云光学厚度大于30、云顶温度大于-30℃时,出现中雨的概率最大;当云光学厚度大于30、云顶温度小于-30℃时,出现大雨或暴雨的可能性最大。云光学厚度、云顶温度、云顶高度和云粒子有效半径等云结构特征参数组合使用,对判断降水概率和降水强度具有较好的指示作用。Based on the hourly cloud structural characteristic parameters retrieved by FY2E satellite and hourly rain gauge data from 10:00 to 15:00 every day in Hebei,Henan and Shanxi provinces during 2013 2014,the relationship between cloud parameters,such as cloud top height,cloud top temperature,optical thickness and particle effective radius,and hourly rainfall was analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows.When the optical thickness increases,the precipitation probability increases.Moreover,the optical thickness has more indicative significance to the precipitation probability than other cloud parameters.Once the optical thickness exceeds 20,the precipitation probability would increase obviously.In addition,double cloud parameters or multiple parameters are superior to single cloud parameter in the identification of precipitation.Among the 4 cloud parameters,there is a positive correlation between optical thickness and precipitation intensity.The key influence in precipitation intensity is optical thickness,and the next is cloud top temperature or cloud top height.However the correlation between particle effective radius and the precipitation intensity is not obvious.In the period of precipitation,if cloud optical thickness is lesser than 20 or between 21-30 and cloud top temperature exceeds-15℃,the probability of light rainfall on the ground will be maximum;if cloud optical thickness is between 21-30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-15℃,or cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is higher than-30℃,the probability of moderate rainfall on the ground will be maximum;if cloud optical thickness exceeds 30 and cloud top temperature is lower than-30℃,the probability of heavy rainfall or storm rainfall on the ground will be the maximum.Therefore,comprehensive analysis of optical thickness,cloud top temperature,cloud top height and particle effective radius are more effective to determine precipitation probability and precipitation intensity.

关 键 词：云特征参数 地面降水 光学厚度 相关性 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]