基于云模型与马尔科夫链的继电保护装置寿命预测方法  

Life prediction method of relay protection device based on could model and Markov Chain

作　　者：陈海涛 杨军[1] 施迎春 岳斌 李瑞津 CHEN Haitao;YANG Jun;SHI Yingchun;YUE Bin;LI Ruijin(School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Yuxi Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Limited Liability Company,Yuxi 653199,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]云南电网有限责任公司玉溪供电局,云南玉溪653199

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2019年第16期94-100,共7页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(51277135)~~

摘　　要：准确预测智能变电站继电保护装置的有效寿命,是保障智能变电站安全稳定运行的关键。提出了一种基于云模型与马尔科夫链的继电保护装置寿命预测方法。利用继电保护装置的运行状态数据并结合云模型的隶属度函数来构建初始状态概率分布向量,然后依据马尔科夫链原理获得状态转移概率矩阵,最后通过分析信度准则预测保护装置有效寿命。算例分析结果表明该方法能科学预测保护装置有效寿命,可为智能变电站继电保护装置的状态检修工作提供指导依据。Predicting the effective life of relay protection devices accurately is the essential to ensure the safe and stable operation of smart substations.This paper proposes a life prediction method based on cloud model and Markov chain.This method utilizes the operating status data of the relay protection device and combines with the membership function of the cloud model to construct the initial state probability distribution vector.Then the state transition probability matrix is obtained according to the Markov chain principle.Finally,the effective life of the protection device is predicted according to the reliability criterion.The example analysis results show that this method can effectively predict the effective life of the protection device and can also provide guidance for the state maintenance work of the relay protection device in the smart substation.

关 键 词：寿命预测 云模型 马尔科夫链 信度准则 继电保护装置 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]