动态综合评价方法在电网应急能力评估中的应用  

Application of dynamic comprehensive evaluation method in power system emergency management capability assessment

作　　者：王迪 蔡东军 房鑫炎[1] 方忠闪 胡振起 丁鹏堃 WANG Di;CAI Dongjun;FANG Xinyan;FANG Zhongshan;HU Zhenqi;DING Pengkun(School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Ningbo Power Supply Company,Ningbo 315000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海200240 [2]国网宁波供电公司,浙江宁波315000

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2019年第16期101-107,共7页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFC0205204)~~

摘　　要：传统的电网应急能力评估模型大多采用的是静态评价,这种方法得出的结论具有片面性。针对这种不足,提出了一种动态评价方式使评价结果更加合理、全面。建立了电网应急能力评估基本指标体系,采用层次分析法和变异系数法主客观相结合的方法对各项指标进行权重赋值并进行静态评价。将应急能力评估分为预防、准备、响应和恢复4个时间阶段,并集结时序加权平均-时序加权几何平均混合算子模型对电网应急能力进行分析,得到动态综合评价值。结果表明,采用动态综合评价方法对电网应急能力进行评估可以得出科学、准确的结果。Most of the traditional grid emergency management capability assessment models use static evaluation.The conclusions drawn by this method are one-sided.In response to this deficiency,this paper proposes a dynamic evaluation method to make the evaluation results more reasonable and comprehensive.The basic index system of power grid emergency management capability assessment is established.The analytic hierarchy process and the coefficient of variation method are used to combine the objective and objective methods to assign weights to each index and perform static evaluation.The emergency management capability assessment is divided into four periods:prevention,preparation,response and recovery.The time-weighted average-time-series weighted geometric average hybrid operator model is used to analyze the grid emergency management capability to obtain the dynamic comprehensive evaluation value.The results show that the dynamic comprehensive evaluation method can be used to evaluate the emergency management capability of the power grid to obtain scientific and accurate results.

关 键 词：电网应急能力评估 动态评价 时序加权平均算子 时序加权几何平均算子 指标体系 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]