荒漠濒危植物裸果木适宜分布区对未来气候变化情景的可能响应  

Possible response of the suitable distribution areas of endangered desert Plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii to future climate change scenario

作　　者：魏博 孙芳芳[1] 马新[2] 黄婷婷 马松梅 WEI Bo;SUN Fangfang;MA Xin;HUANG Tingting;MA Songmei(College of Life Sciences,Shihezi University,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Institute of Crop Science,Xinjiang Academy of Agri-Reclamation Sciences,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;School of Measuring and Optical Engineering,Nanchang Hang Kong University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330063,China;College of Science,Shihezi University,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学生命科学学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]新疆农垦科学院,新疆石河子832000 [3]南昌航空大学测试与光电学院,江西南昌330063 [4]石河子大学理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期490-497,共8页Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41561007,41261011);旱区作物逆境生物学国家重点实验室(西北农林大学)开放基金(CSBAA2015014)

摘　　要：目的模拟未来气候变化对荒漠孑遗植物裸果木的地理分布与格局的影响,对指导该植物的保护/恢复有重要意义。方法基于裸果木的25个居群分布点和12个环境变量,利用最大熵模型MAXENT和GIS工具,模拟基准(1961-1990)气候,并预测未来气候下(2050和2070时段,基于RCP6.0情景)裸果木在蒙古南部和我国西北的潜在分布范围和最适宜分布,并分析适宜分布区内各驱动因子的数值范围。结果1)基准气候下,裸果木的潜在分布区集中于我国西北荒漠区,在蒙古的准噶尔戈壁省、南戈壁省和东戈壁省仅有少量破碎化的适生区;2)2050和2070时段该植物在我国西北荒漠区的分布区将减少32%左右,主要分布在塔里木盆地西端、河西走廊东部、内蒙古阿拉善左旗及宁夏北部地区;最适宜的分布区也将明显缩减;3)主要是年均降水量、最湿季降水量和降水季节性限制了裸果木植物的潜在分布。上述3个因子的变化范围分别为:54.00~162.01 mm、26.00~103.44 mm和40.36~145.78。结论未来气候下,裸果木在我国西北荒漠区的适宜分布范围和最适宜分布区都将明显减少。Objective Simulating the impacts of future climate change on the geographical distribution and pattern of Gymnocarpos przewalskii,a desert relic plant,is of great significance for guiding the protection/restoration of the plant.Methods The methodology is based on 25 population distribution points and 11 environment variables using Maximum entropy(MAXENT)model and GIS tools to simulate and forecast the potential distribution range and the most suitable distribution of G.przewalskii in southern Mongolia and northwest China under reference(1961-1990)and future climate conditions(2050 and 2070,all based on RCP6.0 scenario),to reveal the driving factors in the predicted distributions and to analyze its numerical range.Results The major results were as follows:1)The potential distribution was centered in the desert areas of Northwest China and,little fragmented distribution areas were identified in the ZhunGeEr Gobi,South Gobi and East Gobi of Mongolia under reference climate;2)The estimated percentage of the potential distribution areas in Northwest China under future climate conditions(2050 and 2070,all based on RCP6.0 scenario)was reduced by 32%,and distributed in the western tip of Tarim Basin,eastern Hexi Corridor,Alxa left Banner of Inner Mongolia,and the Northern Ningxia.The most suitable distributions were also found to be significantly reduced;3)The annual precipitation,the wettest quarter precipitation and the seasonal precipitation mainly limited the potential distributions of G.przewalskii.The variation ranges of these three precipitation factors in the potential distribution areas under reference climatic conditions were 54.00~162.01 mm,26.00~103.44 mm and 40.36~145.78 mm respectively.Conclusion The suitable disribution area and most distribution area of G.przewalskii of Northwest china would significantly reduce under future climate changes.

关 键 词：裸果木 未来气候变化 适宜分布范围 驱动因子 保护 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]