民族地区农业结构变迁与农村留守家庭的发展——基于累积因果理论的实证分析  

Agricultural Industry Structure Adjustment and Development of Rural Left-behind Family in Minority Areas: Empirical Analysis Based on Cumulative Causation Theory

作　　者：李一男[1] 郭佳 李鑫[3] Li Yinan;Guo Jia;Li Xin

机构地区：[1]兰州大学管理学院 [2]兰州文理学院 [3]中国人民银行兰州中心支行征信管理处

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2019年第9期177-189,共13页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目“政府职能转变背景下绩效管理研究”(项目编号:71433005);教育部人文社科青年基金项目“西部生态脆弱地区的移民文化变迁与农村留守问题研究”(项目编号:15YJC630066)

摘　　要：少数民族地区的稳定和发展是整个社会和谐的关键因素,而维持经济增长是实现民族地区稳定团结的重要基础。在我国西部欠发达地区的广大少数民族聚居区,传统种植业仍然是目前农村产业结构的主体,农业劳动力需求高,回报率偏低的现实困扰着这些地区农村大多数住户,尤其是缺乏劳动力的留守家庭。文章选取甘肃省临夏回族自治州作为研究对象,实证分析了该地区自1994至2017年间农业产业结构变化与当地经济增长之间的关联,指出以临夏为代表的大多数西部欠发达少数民族地区当前大致处于瓶颈期和发展期之间,农业经济仍然没有摆脱传统生产方式的窠臼,分析并强调政府推动农业产业结构调整的作用,以及这种变化的趋向与可能带来的影响。从累积因果理论视角分析了当地发展思路对于少数民族地区农村留守家庭的帮助作用,通过地方政府的政策引导,这些家庭得以逐步弥补相对于普通农村家庭的劣势,在新型城镇化推进的过程中,有机会更好地发挥自身比较优势。The stability and development of minority area is a key factor for social harmony.To achieve this goal,a basic requirement is to keep economic growth.In the undeveloped west China,especially the minority inhabit district,the main part of economic structure is still agriculture.High demanding for labors and low return rates made most of the local rural families facing a hard time.For the left-behind families who are extremely lack of agricultural labors the situation is much worse.In this paper we use data of Linxia district of Gansu province from1994 to 2017 to analyze the structural adjustment in agricultural industries and its relationship with economic growth.Point out that Linxia and most of other western rural undeveloped minority districts are generally at the same development stage.The traditional model of agricultural production is still the mainstream.Then we analyze the function of local government in promoting the agricultural industry structure adjustment,the changing trend and possible influence it may bring.from the perspective of cumulative causation theory,we indicate that local development strategies could help the rural left-behind families.Through the policy guidance,these families are possible to reduce relative disadvantages and achieve better development.

关 键 词：精准扶贫 三农问题 累积因果 农村留守 城镇化 

分 类 号：C912.82[经济管理]