互联网金融与商业银行能互利共生吗?——基于利率联动与系统性风险视角  

Can Internet Finance and Commercial Banks be Mutually Beneficial? From the Perspective of Interest Rate Linkage and Systematic Risk

作　　者：李庆华[1] 李峰波 徐淑华 LI Qing-hua;LI Feng-bo;XU Shu-hua(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Management,North China University of Science and Technology,Beijing 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,武汉430079 [2]华北科技学院管理学院,北京065201

出　　处：《商业研究》2019年第8期73-80,共8页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目,项目编号:14BJY011、17BJL040;教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目,项目编号:18YJC790163;中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目,项目编号:3142017106

摘　　要：余额宝是我国规模最大的货币市场基金,本文从余额宝收益率与商业银行利率间联动关系和商业银行系统性风险两个视角分别构建DCC-MVGARCH模型和SVAR模型研究互联网金融对商业银行的冲击。研究结果表明,余额宝收益率与商业银行利率存在正向联动关系;从长期来看,余额宝的发展对商业银行系统性风险的影响趋于均衡,但在短期内,余额宝的发展增加了商业银行的系统性风险。因此,应当规范互联网金融的发展,强化监管,使互联网金融与商业银行互利共生的同时降低银行的系统性风险。Yu′ebao is the largest currency market fund in China.This paper constructs DCC-MVGARCH model and SVAR model from the two perspectives of the relationship between Yu′ebao′s yield and commercial banks′interest rate and the systematic risk of commercial banks to discuss the impact of Internet finance on commercial banks.The research results show that there is a positive linkage relationship between Yu′ebao′s yield and commercial banks′interest rate;in the long term,the development of Yu′ebao′s impact on the systemic risk of commercial banks tends to be balanced,but in the short term,the development of Yu′ebao is still increasing the systemic risk of commercial banks.Therefore,we should standardize the development of Internet finance,strengthen supervision,and make the mutual benefit of Internet finance and commercial banks while reducing the systemic risks of banks.

关 键 词：互联网金融 商业银行 利率联动 系统性风险 

分 类 号：F832.3[经济管理—金融学]