西北地区未来10 a气候变化趋势模拟预测研究  

Simulation and Prediction of Climate Change Trend in the Next 10 Years over Northwest China

作　　者：冯蜀青 王海娥 柳艳香[2] 郭裕福[3] FENG Shuqing;WANG Haie;LIU Yanxiang;GUO Yufu(Xining Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Xining 810006,China;Public Weather Service Center of China Meteorological Bureau,Beijng 100081,China;The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beiing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省西宁市气象局,青海西宁810006 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《干旱气象》2019年第4期557-564,共8页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41772173)资助

摘　　要：应用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室研发的全球海洋-大气-陆面过程气候系统耦合模式(IAP/LASGGOALS),引入IPCC AR5提供的温室气体情景排放浓度,模拟检验1951—2015年西北地区的气候变化并预测未来10a西北地区气候变化趋势。结果表明,西北地区增温始于1970年代末期,明显增温开始于1980年代中期;模式能基本体现西北地区的气候变化。未来10a,西北地区年平均气温依然呈上升趋势,到2030年,西北地区年平均气温将会上升约1.67℃,其中,西北地区西部升温幅度最大、北部最小、东部介于两者之间;降水的时空分布比较复杂,总体而言,西北地区西部降水将会增多,而东部地区降水依然相对偏少,干旱程度可能会进一步加重。The climate change trend was simulated in the last 50 years,and predicted in the next 10 years in Northwest China by using the global ocean-atmosphere land surface system model developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP/LASG GOALS),which had been run under greenhouse gas emission scenarios provided by IPCC.The results show that the warming started at the end of the 1970s in Northwest China,but temperature increasing was small,and obvious warming began in the middle of the1980s.The climate features was simulated better in the past 50 years over Northwest China.In the future 10 years,the annual average temperature would increase by about 1.67℃in Northeast China.The largest temperature rise would occur in the west,followed by the east of Northwest China,and the smallest temperature rise would occur in the north.The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation would be complex.However,the precipitation would increase in the west of Northwest China.The precipitation would relatively reduce in the east of Northwest China,and the drought would aggravate.

关 键 词：IAP/LASG GOALS 温室气体情景排放浓度 西北地区 气候趋势预测 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]