长江流域气象旱涝异常急转识别及分析  

Identification and Analysis of Meteorological Drought-flood Sudden Alternation in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：陶新娥 侯雨坤 TAO Xin’e;HOU Yukun(Hubei Province Qingchuan Eco-engineering Technology Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430000,China;Hubei Province Engineering Consult?ing Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430000,China;CCCC Second Harbor Consultans Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省晴川生态工程技术有限公司,武汉430000 [2]湖北省工程咨询股份有限公司,武汉430000 [3]中交第二航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,武汉430071

出　　处：《三峡生态环境监测》2019年第3期52-58,共7页Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖,气象极端事件,例如干旱与洪涝在未来可能会更加频繁地发生。旱涝事件作为气象灾害事件,在中国造成了长期、大面积的破坏与影响。为了将旱涝事件定位至日尺度时间段,使旱涝急转事件可以精确监测,本文采用日尺度的标准化加权平均降雨(standard weighted average precipitation,SWAP)作为旱涝急转研究指标,并采用游程理论提取指标,得到长江流域连续干旱与洪涝事件,判断其旱涝急转程度,分析其强度和发生频率的未来变化情况。With the acceleration of global warming,extremely meteorological events like droughts and floods may occur more frequently in the future.As meteorological disasters,droughts and floods have caused long-term and large-scale damage and influence in China.To locate drought and flood events and accurately monitor them to daily scale,the daily standard weighted average precipitation(SWAP)was employed as an indicator of droughtflood sudden alternation whose information was extracted from the daily SWAP array by the run theory.The con?tinuous series of drought and flood events in the Yangtze River basin were obtained and their severity was deter?mined.The intensity and occurrence frequency of drought-flood sudden alternation events of the Yangtze River basin in the future were predicted.

关 键 词：长江流域 标准化加权平均降雨指数 旱涝急转 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]