区域经济异质视角下电力消费因素分解及“拐点”分析  

Electricity Consumption Decomposition and "Inflection Point" Analysis Considering Heterogeneity of China’s Regional Economic Growth

作　　者：孙祥栋 尹彦辉 郑艳婷[3] Sun Xiangdong;Yin Yanhui;Zheng Yanting(The college of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;School of Economics and Trade,Shandong Management University,Ji'nan 250357,China;School of economics and Resource Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]山东管理学院经贸学院,济南250357 [3]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《技术经济》2019年第7期100-108,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国经济绿色发展的评价体系、实现路径与政策研究”(71333001);国家自然科学基金项目“具有Markov体制转换的动态因子模型建模方法及其应用研究”(71271142)

摘　　要：基于对数均值迪氏分解法,构建了考虑区域经济差异的分解模型对中国电力消费水平进行分解分析,分解结果显示,不论是全国总体水平还是按照“四分法”的区域分解,经济增长均是电力消费增长的最主要驱动力,电气化水平因素是电力消费增长的第二大拉动因素,区域发展因素对全社会用电增量的贡献较为平稳,能源强度因素是拉低全社会用电量的唯一负向因素。动态来看,2001—2005年这一时间段内的“拐点”特征明显,能源强度这一“负向”拉动因素对全社会用电增长的贡献“由负转正”,电气化水平这一“正向”拉动因素对全社会用电量增长的绝对拉动水平达到了1990年以来的新低,基于省际面板数据的进一步实证研究表明我国重工业部门的快速发展抑制了能源强度的降低和电气化水平的提升,西部地区表现得更为显著。This paper constructs an electricity consumption decomposition model considering regional economic differences based on LMDI.According to empirical research,economic growth is the main driving force of electricity consumption growth,electrification level is the second largest electricity consumption growth stimulating factor,regional development factor's contribution to the whole society electricity increment is relatively stable,energy intensity is the only negative factor.From the dynamic point of view,during the period from 2001 to 2005,the “inflection point” feature is obvious.The contribution of energy intensity,a “negative” pull factor to the growth of electricity consumption of the whole society turns from “negative” to “positive”,and the absolute effect of electrification to the growth of electricity consumption of the whole society reaches the lowest level since 1990.Further empirical research based on provincial panel data shows that,the rapid development of China's heavy industry sector inhibits the reduction of energy intensity and the improvement of electrification level,which is more significant in the western region.

关 键 词：电力消费 区域差异 对数均值迪氏分解法 拐点 再重工业化 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]