投入产出关联对资源错配损失效应的放大机理及实证——基于中国投入产出表的分析  

The mechanism and empirical research of how input-output relevancy amplify the losses of resource misallocation:analyses based on China’s input-output tables

作　　者：张兴龙 ZHANG Xinglong(Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200001,China)

机构地区：[1]海通证券股份有限公司

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2019年第4期23-36,共14页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA023);教育部人文社会科学项目(19YJA790017)

摘　　要：供给侧结构性改革的一个核心问题是纠正资源错配。国民经济中投入产出关联存在放大资源错配损失的可能,因此对这一机制进行研究十分必要。建立了模型分析框架,探讨投入产出关联对资源错配损失效应的放大机理,分析三种经济类型中放大机制的异同,并使用中国1995-2011年17份非竞争型投入产出表进行实证分析。研究发现:投入产出关联会放大资源错配导致的产出损失,平均而言,能够使产出损失放大2~3倍;从经济类型看,出口导向型经济的放大效应最强,而内需主导型经济的放大效应最弱;不同行业部门对总体经济损失的影响大小存在差异且处于动态变化中。总体而言,我国投入产出关联的损失放大系数合计值在不断上升,表明我国投入产出关联对资源错配造成损失的放大机制在不断增强。政府在进行供给侧结构性改革时,若改善重点行业的资源错配状况,可以取得较大的经济绩效。研究结论还表明我国经济发展类型应逐渐向内需主导型经济过渡,以弱化投入产出关联对错配损失的放大效应。Correcting resources misallocation is the key of the supply-side structural reform.The input-output relevancy of the economy may amplify the effect of misallocation,so it is very important to analyze this mechanism.This paper establishes model to analyze how the input-output relevancy of the economy amplify the losses of resource misallocation,and compares the similarities and differences of three different economic types.This paper also uses China’s non-competitive input-output tables of 1995-2011 to do empirical research.This paper finds that the input-output relevancy can amplify the losses caused by resource misallocation,and the amplification constant can be 2~3.Export-oriented economy’s amplification constant is larger than that of domestic-oriented economy.The influences of different industrial sectors on overall economic losses are different and in dynamic state.In general,the gross amplification constant of China is rising every year.So it is very important to cross some key industries’resource misallocation to attain better economic performance when governments are promoting the supply-side structural reform.The results also demonstrate that our economic type should transform to the domestic-oriented economy to weaken the amplification of input-output relevancy.

关 键 词：投入产出关联 资源错配 效率损失 放大机制 经济类型 出口导向型经济 内需主导型经济 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]