1960—2017年滦河流域降水集中度与集中期时空变化特征  

Spatial-temporal variations in intra-annual precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period in Luanhe River Basin from 1960-2017

作　　者：董满宇[1,2] 王磊鑫 李洁敏 江源 徐霞[1,2] DONG Manyu;WANG Leixin;LI Jiemin;JIANG Yuan;XU Xia(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期468-475,共8页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家水体污染与控制科技重大专项基金资助项目(2017ZX0730100103);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41771051)

摘　　要：基于滦河流域1960—2017年逐日降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、Pettitt法、经验正交分解(EOF)等方法,分析了滦河流域降水集中度(PCD)和降水集中期(PCP)的时空变化特征.结果表明:近60a来,滦河流域PCD平均值为0.71,呈显著的下降趋势.PCP平均值为203.3,年内降水多集中在7月22—23日左右,呈现出微弱的下降趋势.PCD在1996年前后发生突变,而PCP的突变特征不明显.近60a来,PCD和PCP变化趋势的空间分布存在明显区域差异.乐亭、唐山、青龙和承德地区PCD的降幅较大且达到了显著性水平,PCP在中游的青龙地区下降幅度较大.EOF分析结果表明:滦河流域PCD和PCP以全区一致型的空间分布为主,流域上游与中下游反向的分布格局次之.滦河流域年降水量与PCP相关性较差,而与PCD具有较好的相关性,其中青龙、乐亭、秦皇岛和唐山等中下游地区都表现出显著正相关,说明滦河流域中下游地区年降水越集中,年降水量和日最大降水量也相应越大,使得当地发生洪涝灾害的概率增大.位于流域上游的多伦和围场地区PCD、PCP与年降水量相关性都不显著,这对于当地的水土保持是相对有利的.Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt's test and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)were applied to daily precipitation data from sixteen meteorological stations within or adjacent to the study area spatialtemporal variations in precipitation concentration degree(PCD)and precipitation concentration period(PCP)in Luanhe River Basin from 1960-2017 were analyzed.In the most recent 60a,the mean PCD was found to be 0.71,with an apparent decreasing trend,with a rather uniform distribution of intra-annual precipitation.The mean PCP was found to be 203.3,showing an insignificant declined trend,with annual precipitation concentrated from 22 to 23 July.An abrupt change in PCD occurred around 1996,but the precise point for this abrupt change in PCP was not detected.The change trends of PCD and PCP exhibited marked spatial variations.Larger change magnitude in PCD with significant negative trends occurred in Leting,Tangshan,Qinglong and Chengde in the middle reaches,but Qinglong showed a large change in PCP.PCD and PCP were mainly congruous in the whole region;in the upper and middle-lower reaches a reverse distribution pattern was also seen.Annual precipitation was poorly correlated with PCP,but was well correlated with PCD.The positive relationship between PCD and annual precipitation passed the significant level of 0.01 This means that the higher PCD,the greater annual precipitation and maximum daily precipitation,therefore increasing the probability of local flooding.Correlations between PCD,PCP and annual precipitation in Duolun and Weichang in the middle reaches were not significant,this being relatively favorable for local soil and water conservation.

关 键 词：降水集中度 降水集中期 时空变化 滦河流域 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]