人口老龄化对中国制造业行业出口的影响研究  

A Study of Population Aging on Chinese Manufacturing Exports

作　　者：张明志[1] 吴俊涛 ZHANG Mingzhi;WU Juntao

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2019年第8期1-15,共15页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人口结构变动与中国出口转型升级研究”(17BJY146)

摘　　要：本文借鉴Cai和Stoyanov(2016)的方法,把蕴含在劳动力内的能力划分为年龄增值型技能、年龄贬值型技能和体能,并利用2012-2016年"省级-行业"层面的数据研究人口老龄化对中国制造业行业出口的影响。实证研究结果显示:(1)人口老龄化会显著促进密集使用年龄增值型技能的行业出口;(2)人口老龄化会显著抑制密集使用年龄贬值型技能和密集使用体能的行业出口。进一步的拓展性分析表明:(1)与外资参与度高的行业相比,外资参与度低的行业出口受人口老龄化不利冲击的影响更大;(2)与东部和中部地区相比,西部地区制造业行业出口受人口老龄化的影响更为显著;(3)制造业行业出口主要受乡村户籍人口老龄化的影响;(4)省际人口流动降低了人口老龄化对制造业行业出口的影响。因此,积极发挥人口老龄化对制造业行业出口的正向促进作用,有效化解人口老龄化对制造业行业出口所带来的不利冲击,是促进中国制造业出口转型升级的题中应有之义。Drawing on the methods of Cai and Stoyanov(2016),we classified the age-dependent skills in the labor force into age-appreciating skills,age-depreciating skills and physical abilities.Using the provincial-industry panel data for the period 2012-2016,this study examined the effects of population aging on Chinese manufacturing exports.The benchmark results indicate that population aging significantly promotes the export of industries which use age-appreciating skills intensively,and erodes the export of industries which use age-depreciating skills and physical abilities.Further expansion analysis shows that industries with low foreign participation are more adversely affected by population aging.Compared with the eastern and central regions,the export of manufacturing industry in the western region is more significantly inhibited by the population aging.The export of manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the aging of rural population.Moreover,the inter-provincial population movement reduces the impact of population aging on the export of manufacturing industry.Therefore,in order to promote the transformation and upgrading of Chinese export of manufacturing industry,it is necessary to actively perform the positive role of population aging in promoting the export of manufacturing industry and effectively resolve the adverse impact of population aging on the export of manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 制造业出口 年龄相关技能密集度 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]