长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出的门槛效应研究  

Research on the Threshold Effect of Technology Spillover from Import Trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：冯德连[1] 王锦 王若梅 FENG De-lian;WANG Jin;WANG Ruo-mei(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,233030;Business School,Hohai University,211100)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,233030 [2]河海大学商学院,211100

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2019年第8期37-50,共14页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链与我国劳动密集型产业集群升级研究”(批准号:12BJY072);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出效应研究”(批准号ACYC2018058)阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：选取长江经济带2000-2017年的省际面板数据,采用非参数方法测算全要素生产率,运用L-P方法度量进口贸易技术溢出效应。运用门槛回归模型,分别以人力资本水平和研发投入强度作为门槛变量,从静态和动态两方面分析长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出对全要素生产率的门槛效应。研究发现:当人力资本水平介于两门槛值之间时,长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出对全要素生产率有显著的促进作用。当研发投入强度在越过第二门槛值之前时,长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出对全要素生产率的提高有正向作用,在越过第一门槛值时这种正向作用会更加显著。不论是人力资本水平还是研发投入强度,在越过第二门槛值时,长江经济带进口贸易技术溢出对全要素生产率在一定程度上具有抑制作用。建议上海、江苏优化人力资本结构和加大研发投入,促进自主创新;其他省市,尤其是云南、贵州,加大进口力度,充分发挥进口贸易技术溢出对全要素生产率增长的作用。Selecting the provincial panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2017,using non-parametric method to measure total factor productivity,using L-P method to measure technology spillover effect of import trade,using threshold regression model,taking human capital level and R&D expenditure intensity as threshold variables,this paper analyses the threshold effect of technology spillovers on total factor productivity from both static and dynamic aspects. It is found that when the level of human capital is between the two thresholds,the technology spillover effect of import trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a significant effect on total factor productivity. Before the intensity of R&D investment crosses the second threshold,the technology spillover of import trade in the Yangtze River economic belt has a positive effect on the improvement of total factor productivity,and the positive effect of crossing the first threshold will be more significant. Whether it is the level of human capital or the intensity of R&D investment,when crossing the second threshold,the technology spillover effect of import trade in the Yangtze River economic belt has a certain inhibitory effect on total factor productivity. It is suggested that Shanghai and Jiangsu should optimize the structure of human capital and increase investment in R&D to promote independent innovation.Other provinces and cities,especially Yunnan and Guizhou,should increase imports and give full play to the role of technology spillovers in import trade.

关 键 词：长江经济带 进口贸易 技术溢出 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]