上海人口老龄化如何影响经济社会发展  

A System Dynamics Analysis of the Influence of Population Aging on Economic and Social Development in Shanghai

作　　者：春燕[1] 郭海生 王灿[3] CHUN Yan;GUO Hai-sheng;WANG Can(Institute of Urban and Population Development Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020;Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200001;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Tongji University 200092)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所,200020 [2]上海社会科学院经济所,200001 [3]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,200092

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2019年第8期51-63,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目:“公平、活力与可持续——老龄社会的经济特征及支持系统研究”阶段性研究成果之一,项目编号:71490734

摘　　要：本文以上海为例,从认识和探讨老龄化对地区经济社会影响及其相关要素之间的作用关系出发,采用SD系统动力学方法构建了人口老龄化的地区影响模型,并在不同的情景模式下,研究分析了伴随人口年龄结构变化地区经济、社会的发展变化趋势。研究结果显示:(1)本研究老龄化地区影响模型能够有效模拟人口年龄结构变化对地区经济社会的影响及政策调控效果;(2)不同的情景模拟清晰了不同政策的调控区间,表明任何单一政策对改善人口年龄结构变化影响作用有限,应对老龄化需要不同政策的协调采取综合措施应对;(3)老龄化地区影响模型的参数设计和基础数据源于地区统计,因此若对其进行调试可用于其他地区的老龄化问题研究,为不同地区的政策设计和制度安排提供理论依据和方法支撑。This paper uses the system dynamics method to construct a systematic model of the interaction between population age structure and economic and social development,and explores the relationship between aging and the regional economic impacts.Taking Shanghai for example,the analysis simulates the trend of regional population,economic and social development under different scene model.The main results show that:The system model of this study can effectively simulate the impact of population age structure changes on the regional economy and society;To deal with the impact of population aging,It is difficult to achieve the desired response effect by adjusting the policies for simply adjust the population policy,or for only a certain department.The policy should focus on the factors closely related to the aging of the population and their relationship,and introduce integration of policies to coordinate the conflict between aging and system of society and economy by grasping the principle of population aging influence.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济社会发展 系统及要素关系 SD模型 上海 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]