基于KAYA 恒等式和LMDI分解法的淮安市生产用水驱动因素分析  

Analysis of driving factors of production water in Huai’an City based on KAYA Identity and LMDI Model

作　　者：轩党委 沈静文 胡庆芳[1] 王银堂[1] 刘勇[1] 崔婷婷[1] XUAN Dangwei;SHEN Jingwen;HU Qingfang;WANG Yintang;LIU Yong;CUI Tingting(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;Qingjiangpu District Agriculture and Water Resources Commission,Huai an Water Conservancy Bureau,Huai an 223001,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]淮安市清江浦区农业与水利委员会,江苏淮安223001

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2019年第7期40-47,共8页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“多源雨洪信息综合挖掘与预测预报方法”(2016YFC0400902)

摘　　要：分析了2008-2017年淮安市主要用水指标的变化特征,综合考虑了水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用、人口规模、经济水平、产业结构、用水效率6个因素对淮安市生产用水的影响,基于扩展的KAYA恒等式建立了用水驱动因素分解模型。并应用对数均值迪氏指数法对2008-2017年淮安市生产用水变化进行分解分析,以评价逐年和多年时间尺度上各类驱动因素对生产用水的相对影响程度。结果表明:2008-2017年淮安市用水总量和生产用水量总体呈下降态势,主要用水效率指标均有改善;经济水平和用水效率提升是淮安市2008-2017年生产用水变化的主要驱动因素,两者在逐年和多年时间尺度上对生产用水变化的相对贡献率分别为56.49%、-127.71%和56.63%、-126.57%。研究成果对了解淮安市用水总量及主要用水效率指标的历史发展趋势,正确理解淮安市产业结构与用水结构协调发展具有参考价值。The paper analyzed the changes of the main water use indicators in Huai an from 2008 to 2017,and comprehensively considered the impact of water resources endowment,water resources development and utilization,population size,economic level,industrial structure and water usage effectiveness on production water in Huai an City.Based on the extended KAYA identity,a water-driven factor decomposition model was established.Log mean Divisia index(LMDI)was used to decompose the water consumption changes in Huai an City from 2008 to 2017 to evaluate the driving factors of various types of driving factors on the yearly and multi-year time scales.The results showed that the total water consumption and production water consumption in Huai an City decreased from 2008 to 2017,and the main water efficiency indicators improved.The economic level and water efficiency improvement were the main driving factors for production water changes in Huai an from 2008 to 2017.Economic level and improvement of water use efficiency were the main driving factors for the change of production water use in Huai an city from 2008 to 2017,and their relative contribution rates to the change of production water use were 56.49%~127.71%and 56.63%~126.57%,respectively,on a yearly and multi-year time scale.The research results had a reference value for knowing the historical development trend of water consumption and main water efficiency indicators,and for understanding the coordinated development of industrial structure and water structure in Huai an city.

关 键 词：用水指标 驱动因素 KAYA恒等式 对数均值迪氏指数分析方法 淮安市 最严格水资源管理制度 用水效率控制红线 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]