新中国70年财政货币政策协调范式:总结与展望  

Review, Experience Summary and Academic Prospect of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Paradigm in China in the Past 70 Years

作　　者：刘金全[1] 张龙[2] LIU Jinquan;ZHANG Long(Jilin University,130012)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,130012

出　　处：《财贸经济》2019年第9期35-50,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“经济周期形态变异、子类经济周期划分、子类经济周期与经济周期关联机制研究”(19AJY005);国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济新常态下经济增长的趋势性与收敛性研究”(71873042);中宣部文化名家暨“四个一批”人才项目“宏观经济政策分析与计量研究”。

摘　　要：新中国成立70年来,经济建设取得了举世瞩目的成绩,已具备迈向高质量发展的客观条件。在不同的发展阶段和政策目标下,财政政策与货币政策的宏观调控效果存在差异,为实现经济增长和物价稳定等宏观经济目标,我国的财政政策与货币政策经历多次“松紧”切换。本文回顾了新中国成立70年来财政政策与货币政策“双积极”“积极+从紧”“积极+稳健”等各种组合范式的变迁过程,在总结其呈现的灵活多变、相机调控、需求管理、工具多元等调控经验基础上,分析了财政货币政策调控存在的多重目标调控两难、调控效应滞后错位、经济效应边际递减、政策效果相互抵消等客观问题,并阐述了新时期财政政策与货币政策在组合范式、预期管理、供需协同、工具协调等方面可能存在的创新机制,为相关学术研究指明了方向。Since its founding,the People's Republic of China has made remarkable achievements and already has objective conditions for moving towards high-quality development.In different development stages and under different policy objectives,the regulation effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies vary.In order to achieve economic growth and price stability,China's fiscal and monetary policies have undergone various switches.This paper first reviews collocation models of China's fiscal policy and monetary policy over the past 70 years,and sums up the combination paradigm based on flexible presentation,discretionary regulation,demand management,and tool diversity.Then,it summarizes the dilemmas,such as the conflict between multiple goals,lagging and misplaced regulating effects,diminishing marginal economic effects and policy effects offset.Lastly,it points out the possible innovation mechanism in the combination paradigm,expectation management,supply-demand synergy,tool coordination,and the direction for the academic study.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 宏观调控 协调范式 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F822.0