基于Agent理论的机场旅客出发时间与出行方式联合选择模型研究  

A Joint Selection Model of Departure Time and Travel Mode of Airport Passengers Based on Agent Theory

作　　者：狄智玮 包丹文 张天炫 朱婷 DI Zhiwei;BAO Danwen;ZHANG Tianxuan;ZHU Ting(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2019年第4期136-144,共9页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：南京航空航天大学研究生创新基地(实验室)开放基金项目(kfjj20180718)资助

摘　　要：为提高机场陆侧区域的客运通行能力,研究交通管理策略实施后机场旅客的行为变化,通过研究Agent的理论结构,构建了机场旅客出发时间和出行方式的联合选择模型。在建模过程中,考虑了旅客不完全信息性和有限理性,应用机器学习算法生成if-then规则模拟机场旅客前往机场的搜索和决策过程,该规则加入了机场旅客的特征变量,如乘坐飞机频率、是否有托运行李等机场旅客的特征属性。应用该模型进行仿真试验,结果显示,机场公共交通成本在10~15元区间变化时,每降低1元,使用公共交通的旅客比例约提高2%;到达机场公共交通站点时间缩短到10 min时,旅客将会延迟10~15 min出发。该模型能较好地显示出发时间变化和出行方式切换过程,有效的预测了机场旅客在不同交通政策和措施下出行行为的调整结果。In order to improve passenger capacity of airport land side areas,behavioral changes of airport passengers after the implementation of traffic management strategies,and theoretical structure of Agent theory is studied.A joint selection model of departure time and travel mode of airport passengers is developed based on Agent theory.Incomplete informationality and bounded rationality of passengers are considered in processes of modeling.Machine learning algorithm is applied to generate if-then rules to simulate processes of searching and decision making of airport passengers.Characteristic variables of airport passengers,such as frequency of air travel or whether there is checked baggage,are added in these rules.Then the model is applied to a simulation.The results show that when the travel cost of public transportation varies from 10 to 15 yuan,the proportion of airport passengers using public transportation increases by about 2%for every 1 yuan reduction.Passengers will be delayed by 10~15 minutes when the time of arrive at public transport stop of an airport is reduced to 10 minutes.The model can show the changes of departure time and travel mode better.In addition,it can effectively predict adjustment results of travel behaviors of airport passengers under different traffic policies and measures.

关 键 词：机场旅客 AGENT理论 有限理性 出行方式 出发时间 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]