基于三部门划分的广东省能源碳排放驱动因素特征研究  

Research on Energy-Derived Carbon Emission Driving Factors of Guangdong Province Based on Three-sector Division

作　　者：卞勇[1,2,3] 曾雪兰 李淑贞[1,2] 郭星玥 

机构地区：[1]中山大学广东省应对气候变化研究中心,广东广州510006 [2]中山大学智能工程学院,广东广州510006 [3]综合开发研究院(中国·深圳),广东深圳518029

出　　处：《中国能源》2019年第8期33-40,共8页Energy of China

基　　金：广东省低碳发展专项资金项目“广东省市县三级低碳发展评价指标体系”(编号:NC-2016-170P)

摘　　要：碳排放驱动因素分析是有效制定减排政策的关键,合理划分碳排放部门有助深化对碳排放变化机制的理解和提出更具针对性的措施。把能源消费碳排放划分为发电、产业和生活三个部门,基于LMDI方法将各部门碳排放变化效应分解为若干因素,研究广东省2000-2016年的碳排放驱动因素特征并和全国进行分阶段对比。结果表明:发电部门和产业部门的主要增碳因素分别是用电量增长和经济增长,增碳效应在进入新常态后明显减弱;生活部门主要增碳效应是人均能耗上升。火力发电占比下降和火电效率提升、产业能耗强度下降和产业结构变化分别是发电部门和产业部门的主要减碳因素,而生活部门没有显著的减碳因素。根据广东碳排放驱动因素特征,提出各部门碳排放控制措施建议。Carbon emission driving factor analysis is essential to effectively formulate emission reduction policies, and the rational division of carbon emission sectors will help deepen the understanding of carbon emission change mechanism and put forward more targeted measures. In this article, the energy-derived carbon emissions are divided into three sectors: power, industry and living. Based on the LMDI method, the carbon emission changing effect of each sector is decomposed into several factors to study the characteristics of carbon emission driving factors in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2016 and make a phased comparison with the whole country. The results show that, the leading carbon enhancement factors of power sector and industry sector were electricity consumption growth and economic growth, respectively, and the carbon enhancement effect was obviously weakened after entering the new normal phase. The main carbon growing effect in the living sector is the increase in per capita energy consumption. The decline of the proportion of thermal power generation and the improvement of thermal power efficiency, the decline of industrial energy intensity and the change of industrial structure are the main carbon reduction factors of the power sector and the industry sector, respectively, while the living sector has no significant carbon reduction factors. According to the characteristics of carbon emission drivers in Guangdong province, suggestions on carbon emission control measures of the three sectors are put forward.

关 键 词：碳排放驱动因素 部门划分 广东 LMDI 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]