中国天山花楸适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应  

Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Sorbus tianschanica in China

作　　者：熊中人 张晓晨 邹旭 赵洋 陈昕[1,2] XIONG Zhongren;ZHANG Xiaochen;ZOU Xu;ZHAO Yang;CHEN Xin(Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;College of Biology and the Environment,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南京210037

出　　处：《生态科学》2019年第5期44-51,共8页Ecological Science

基　　金：江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX17_0817);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：气候变化对物种分布的影响是生物地理学研究的热点问题之一。以我国新疆民族药用植物天山花楸为研究对象,基于69条分布记录和筛选后的7个环境变量,利用Maxent模型对该物种当前和未来的适生分布区进行预测,综合应用气候变量的贡献率及置换重要值比较、刀切法(Jackknife)评估制约天山花楸现代分布的主要因子,并探讨未来不同气候情景下该物种分布格局的变化趋势。结果表明:现代适宜分布区主要集中在新疆西北部、青海东部、甘肃中部及宁夏、陕西、山西的部分区域;影响天山花楸地理分布的主要气候因子为降水和气温,且降水因子更重要;未来气候变暖趋势下天山花楸适生区向高纬度地区移动。到21世纪50年代,天山花楸适生区面积在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5的情景下均有所增加,到70年代时增幅有所降低,在中、高浓度情景下减幅更大。上述研究结果对于在适生区开展天山花楸资源保护和引种栽培具有重要的指导意义。The impact of climate change on species distribution is one of the hot issues in biogeography research.Sorbus tianschanica Rupr.is an important ethnomedicinal plant of Xinjiang,China.In this study,the potential suitable distribution habitats of S.tianschanica in China was simulated by the Maximum Entropy model,based on sixty-nine distribution records and seven environmental factors under the current climate condition.The importance of environmental variables was evaluated by percent contribution,permutation importance and Jackknife test.Moreover,the dynamics of distribution pattern under different climate scenarios were analyzed.The results showed that the modern potential suitable habitats of S.tianschanica were mainly located in the northwestern part of Xinjiang,eastern Qinghai,central Gansu,and parts of Ningxia,Shannxi and Shanxi.The main factors affecting the potential distribution of S.tianschanica were precipitation and temperature,with the former being more important.The suitable distribution habitats of S.tianschanica would move to high latitudes under climate warming in the future.By the 2050s,the total suitable distribution area of S.tianschanica would increase in RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5.The growth rate would decrease by the 2070s and the reduction was larger under the medium and high concentration scenarios.The above results will provide valuable references for the conservation and introduction and cultivation of S.tianschanica in the suitable distribution habitats.

关 键 词：天山花楸 适生分布区 MAXENT 气候变化 

分 类 号：S428[农业科学—植物保护]