我国货币政策调控房地产市场的阶段划分及效果评价  

Exploration on the Regulation of China’s Monetary Policy toward the Real Estate Market——Phase Division and Effect Evaluation

作　　者：杨刚[1] 张铭铭 徐俊杰 Yang Gang;Zhang Ming-ming;Xu Jun-jie(Business School,University of Jianqiao,Shanghai 201315,China;China Grain Reserves Group Ltd.Company,Jinan Depot,Jinan Shandong 250100,China;The School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance&Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海建桥学院商学院,上海201306 [2]中央储备粮济南直属库有限公司,山东济南250100 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2019年第9期87-91,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJL085);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(17YJA790007);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD009);上海市教委民办高校科研重点项目(2016-SHNGE-03ZD)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：1998年住房改革以来,我国采取了各种宏观调控手段确保房地产市场持续稳定发展,其中运用货币政策调控的历程大致可以划分为四个阶段,向上调控房价的第一和第三阶段,向下调控房价的第二和第四阶段,其中既有成功经验也有失败教训。总体来看,向上调控效果显著,都取得了成功,而向下调控的效果较差,教训更多。在当前楼市出现较明显分化和经济下行压力加大的情况下,我们认为,房价依然有上涨基础,应该坚持采用以数量型货币政策为主、价格型货币政策为辅的工具组合,同时根据各个城市的具体情况,因地制宜采取更有弹性和针对性的政策措施,才能有效防范房地产金融风险,充分发挥房地产业拉动内需的作用,促进我国宏观经济稳定可持续发展。Since the beginning of housing reform in 1998,the regulation process of China′s monetary policy on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages.The first and third stages are upward regulation of housing prices,and the second and fourth stages are downward regulation of housing prices.There are both successful experiences and failures lessons.Generally speaking,upward regulation has achieved success and achieved remarkable results,while downward regulation has less effect and more lessons.At present,when the real estate market is beginning to differentiate obviously,we should adopt the combination of monetary policy tools,which are mainly quantitative tools and supplemented by price tools.At the same time,according to the specific situation of each city,we should comprehensively use various policy tools and formulate various more targeted and flexible policies according to local conditions,so as to give full play to the role of real estate industry in stimulating domestic demand,and prevent real estate financial risk,so that to promote macroeconomic stability and sustainable development.

关 键 词：货币政策调控 数量型工具 房地产市场 阶段划分 效果评价 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]