基于时域、频域方法的东北地区经济周期分析  

Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuation in Northeast China Based on Time Domain and Frequency Domain Method

作　　者：周伊楠 谷国锋 王雪辉 ZHOU Yi-nan;GU Guo-feng;WANG Xue-hui(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;School of Tourism and Event Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024 [2]上海对外经贸大学会展与旅游学院,上海201620

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2019年第10期40-47,共8页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“空间计量视角下东北地区经济结构的增长效应及作用机制研究”(16BJL032);东北师范大学哲学社会科学校内重点培育项目“东北地区城市群经济增长的空间关联与溢出效应研究”(16ZD007)

摘　　要：文章选取东北地区1978-2017年时间序列数据,分别从时域和频域角度采用“谷—谷”划分法和自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)算法分析并对比了东北三省经济周期的波动情况。时域分析表明:东北地区经济增长从改革开放前剧烈波动的不稳定态势转变为改革开放后在小范围内波动的平稳快速增长。频域分析表明:黑龙江省经济周期分量主要有基钦周期、朱格拉周期和趋势项,吉林省经济周期分量主要有政治经济周期和朱格拉周期,辽宁省经济周期分量主要有政治经济周期和库兹涅茨周期。影响各省份经济周期的因素有差异,因此,在制定地区经济发展政策时应充分考虑东北三省经济增长特点的一致性和差异性,有针对性地制定政策,促进地区经济的平稳运行。The paper selected the time series data from 1978 to 2017 in Northeast China.Analyzed and compared the business cycles of three provinces in Northeast China use the"valley-valley"partitioning method of time domain and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN)algorithm of frequency domain.Time domain analysis shows that the economic growth in Northeast China has changed from unstable situation of violent fluctuations to a rapid growth of fluctuations in a small range after the reform and opening.The frequency domain analysis shows that the main business cycle component of Heilongjiang province is Kitchin cycle and the Juglar cycle and trend items.The business cycle components of Jilin province mainly include the political economic cycle and the Juglar cycle.The business cycle components of Liaoning province mainly include political economic cycles and Kuznets cycle.We should consider the consistency and difference on the characteristics of economic growth in the three northeastern provinces when in formulate regional economic development policies to promote the smooth operation of the regional economy as there are differences in factors affecting the business cycle of each province.

关 键 词：GDP增长率 经济周期 CEEMDAN算法 “谷—谷”划分法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F124.8