不同海域海表温度强迫对东亚夏季风环流潜在可预报性的影响  

Potential predictability of East Asian summer monsoon circulation forced by sea surface temperatures in different regions

作　　者：王涛[1] 曾刚[1] 伯忠凯[2] 李忠贤[1] WANG Tao;ZENG Gang;BO Zhong-kai;LI Zhong-xian(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST),Nanjing 210044,China;Climate Center of Shandong Meteorological Bureau,Jinan 250031,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]山东省气象局气候中心,济南250031

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2019年第4期1341-1350,共10页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603804);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575085,41430528);重庆市气象局开放式研究基金项目(kfjj-201302)联合资助

摘　　要：本文采用1950—2000年观测的不同海域(全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋、热带印度洋及热带太平洋)海表温度分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,分别进行了5个初值的集合试验,采用方差分析方法,研究了不同海域观测海表温度强迫下东亚夏季风环流的潜在可预报性.结果表明,在不同海域海表温度强迫作用下,东亚地区夏季风环流的潜在可预报性表现为低纬地区高于中高纬地区,其中全球海表温度强迫作用下的东亚夏季风环流的潜在可预报性超过0.5的范围要大于其他海域海表温度强迫作用下的范围.在全球海表温度强迫下,垂直方向上热带地区的夏季风环流潜在可预报性要高于中高纬度地区.东亚夏季100 hPa位势高度场潜在可预报性与热带太平洋海表温度存在密切的关系.东亚夏季500 hPa位势高度场潜在可预报性与热带印度洋海表温度的存在密切的关系,且这种关系存在年代际变化,20世纪70年代末以后两者关系由之前的关系弱转为很强的正相关.Based on the analysis of variance method,the potential predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)circulation is investigated by the NCAR CAM3 global atmospheric circulation model five experiments driven by 1950—2000 monthly SSTs in different sea areas(global,tropical,tropical Indian Ocean-Pacific,tropical Indian Ocean,and tropical Pacific)respectively.Each experiment has five simulations which has different initial fields for running the model.Results show that the potential predictability of EASM circulation at low latitudes is higher than that at the middle and high latitudes in East Asia.The region of Potential predictability of EASM circulation more than 0.5 in simulations forced by global SSTs is larger than these in simulations forced by SSTs in other sea areas.Under the forcing by global SSTs,the vertical potential predictability of EASM circulation in tropics is higher than that in the middle and high latitudes.The potential predictability of summer potential height at 100 hPa in East Asia is closely related to the tropical Pacific SSTs.The potential predictability of summer potential height at 500 hPa in East Asia is closely related to the SSTs in tropical Indian Ocean,and this correlation exists a decadal shift from weak relation to good positive relation in the late 1970s.

关 键 词：潜在可预报性 东亚夏季风环流 海表温度 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]