计及风电功率不确定性的电力系统输电可靠性裕度快速评估  

Fast Evaluation of Transmission Reliability Margin of Power Systems Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

作　　者：李锴 党杰 孙鑫 杨丹 艾东平 马世俊 LI Kai;DANG Jie;SUN Xin;YANG Dan;AI Dongping;MA Shijun(Central China Branch of State Grid,Wuhan 430077,Hubei Province,China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,HubeiProvince,China;State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company,Changsha 410007,Hunan Province,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网华中分部,湖北省武汉市430077 [2]华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北省武汉市430074 [3]国家电网湖南省电力有限公司,湖南省长沙市410007 [4]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市海淀区100192

出　　处：《电网技术》2019年第9期3337-3343,共7页Power System Technology

摘　　要：作为电力系统可用输电能力(available transfer capability,ATC)计算的重要组成部分,输电可靠性裕度(transmission reliability margin,TRM)反映了不确定性因素对电网输电能力的影响,其快速准确评估具有重要意义。为此,该文提出了一种适用于含风电场电力系统的TRM评估方法;所提方法结合随机响应面法(stochastic response surface method,SRSM)和计及关键约束的扩展潮流方程,能够合理反映负荷功率和风电功率的随机波动对电网输电能力的影响。通过IEEE-RTS测试系统的算例分析,验证了所提方法相较于采用蒙特卡洛模拟的计算方法,能显著提高TRM的评估效率。算例还分析了风力发电容量、概率分布参数和相关性,以及并网位置等因素对TRM的影响。As an important part in available transfer capability assessment,transmission reliability margin(TRM)reflects the influence of uncertainty factors on power transfer capability of power systems.Uncertainty of wind power should be considered in TRM determination.This paper proposes a TRM evaluation method for power systems including wind farms.The proposed method is developed by combining stochastic response surface method and augmented power flow equation.The influence of load power and wind power uncertainty on the power transfer margin is quantified.The case studies through IEEE-RTS test system demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the impacts of integration capacity,correlation level and integration location of wind farms are analyzed based on the proposed method.

关 键 词：可用输电能力 输电可靠性裕度 风力发电 随机响应面法 扩展潮流方程 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]