基于集对分析的水资源承载力动态评价——以四川省为例  

Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis: a case study of Sichuan Province

作　　者：刘童 杨晓华[1,2] 赵克勤 薛淇芮 LIU Tong;YANG Xiaohua;ZHAO Keqin;XUE Qirui(State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Zhuji Connection Number,Zhuji 311811,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]浙江省诸暨市联系数学研究所,浙江诸暨311811

出　　处：《人民长江》2019年第9期94-100,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401305,2017YFC0506603);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530635)

摘　　要：针对传统评价方法只能得到宏观评价结果的不足,研究构建了五元联系数模型,用于四川省水资源承载力动态评价与分析。分析结果表明:①五元联系数与偏联系数既能宏观评价区域水资源承载力,又能发掘其微观变化趋势,评价结果准确合理。②从宏观上来说,四川省水资源承载力在评价时间段均处于基本平衡状态,能够支撑四川省目前的社会经济规模。③从微观上来说,四川省水资源承载力联系度在整体上呈上升的趋势,在2009,2011年和2015年3个时间点出现了小幅波动。④各子系统的承载能力排序为水资源>社会经济>生态环境。根据评价与分析结果,确定了四川省今后改善水资源承载能力的措施和方向,亦即将以控制污染物排放和提高用水效率两个方面为主,以满足新时代下可持续发展和生态文明建设的要求。Conventional evaluation methods can only yield macroscopic evaluation results,therefore we analyzed and constructed five-element connection number model and applied it to the dynamic evaluation and analysis of water resources carrying capacity for Sichuan Province.The results show that:①Not only the five-element connection number and partial connection number can evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity,but also they can help explore the microscopic changes,the results are accurate and justifiable.②On the macro level,the carrying capacity of water resources in Sichuan province is in an equilibrium state during the rating period,and it has the ability to support the current social and economic scale of Sichuan Province.③On the micro level,the connection degree of water resources carrying capacity is on the rise with small fluctuations in 2009,2011 and 2015.④The carrying capacity of the subsystem from high to low are rated in order as water resource,social economy,ecological environment.In order to promote sustainable development and ecological civilization process in the New Era,controlling pollutant discharge and improving water use efficiency are the two major measures for improving water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：承载力动态评价 水资源承载力 微观变化趋势 集对分析 偏联系数 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]