中国服务业增长和波动的区制转换与非对称性研究  

Research on the Regime Switching and Asymmetry Characteristics of Service Sector Growth and Fluctuation in China

作　　者：王艺枞 陈磊[1,2] 孟勇刚[1] WANG Yi-cong;CHEN Lei;MENG Yong-gang(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Center of Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2019年第10期92-99,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目《新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究》(15ZDA011)

摘　　要：在当前服务业景气“微波化”的背景下,采用四区制马尔科夫混频动态因子模型,从增长速度和波动强度的双重角度对中国服务业景气不同阶段的运行特征进行详细考察。结果表明,中国服务业景气波动主要呈现低增长―低波动状态,其次为高增长―低波动状态,且不同阶段之间的转移概率呈现非对称性;中国服务业在经济新常态背景下可能会在以低增长―低波动为主要特征的“L”型底部运行,也可能会在低波动水平上呈现高增长和低增长状态交替的“W”型波动态势。In the current context,China's service sector is in the stage of narrowing-fluctuation cycles.Markov-switching process is applied to the intercept item and variance item of the mixed frequency dynamic factor model.A detailed investigation is conducted to analyze the service sector's cyclical characteristics on different states,which from angles of the growth rate and fluctuation degree.The results indicate that service sector's cyclical fluctuation is dominated by"low growth-low fluctuation"state,and"high growth-low fluctuation"is the second last state.There is asymmetry in the transition probability between different states.In the context of the new normal in China,service sector might run on the bottom of L-shape pattern with the characteristic of"low growth-low fluctuation"or appear a W-shape pattern with the characteristic of"high growth"and"low growth"states alternate on the low-fluctuation level.

关 键 词：服务业 增长速度 波动强度 非对称性 混频动态因子模型 马尔科夫区制转换 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] F719