基于Copula理论及时序重构技术的相关性风速模拟  

Correlative Wind Speed Simulation Based on Copula Theory and Time Series Reconstruction Technology

作　　者：吴卫兵 周松林 邢时超 WU Weibing;ZHOU Songlin;XING Shichao(School of Electrical Engineering,Tongling University,Tongling 244061,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,Tongling University,Tongling 244061,China)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院电气工程学院,铜陵244061 [2]铜陵学院机械工程学院,铜陵244061

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2019年第8期66-72,共7页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2017A474);铜陵学院人才基金项目(2014tlxyrc01)

摘　　要：风速模拟技术能够为风电场的规划及电力系统概率潮流分析提供基础数据。为考虑多风电场风速的互相关性及自相关性,首先建立基于秩相关系数与Copula函数的互相关风速初步发生模型,再根据风速的马尔可夫转移概率矩阵对多维风速时间序列进行时序重构,得到新的风速时间子序列。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够模拟出与真实风速具有相似概率分布,且同时满足互相关性和时序自相关性的多维风速时间序列,验证了方法的有效性和实用性。Wind speed simulation technology can provide basic data for the planning of wind farms and the probabilistic power flow analysis of power system.To take into account the mutual-correlation and auto-correlation of wind speeds in multiple wind farms,an initial mutual-correlation wind speed generation model is established based on the rank correla tion coefficient and Copula function at first.Then,the new time sub-series of wind speeds are obtained by reconstruct ing the multi-dimensional wind speed time series based on the Markov transition probability matrix of wind speed.Simu lation results demonstrate that the method proposed in the paper can simulate the multi-dimensional wind speed time se ries,which not only has similar probability distribution to the real wind speed but also meets the characteristics of mutu al-correlation and auto-correlation of time-series at the same time.Therefore,the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are validated.

关 键 词：风速相关性 联合概率分布 COPULA函数 马尔可夫链 时序重构 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]