基于最大熵模型预测榉树在浙江省的潜在适生区  

A Prediction on the Potential Suitable Areas of Zelkova Schneideriana in Zhejiang Province Using Maximum Entropy Model

作　　者：孙杰杰 江波[2] 邱浩杰 郭佳欢 袁位高[2] 吴丹婷 徐璇 吴初平[2] 焦洁洁[2] 沈爱华[2] SUN Jiejie;JIANG Bo;QIU Haojie;GUO Jiahuan;Yuan Weigao;WU Danting;XU Xuan;WU Chuping;JIAO Jiejie;SHEN Aihua(Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037;Zhejiang Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310023;Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 311300)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南京210037 [2]浙江省林业科学研究院,杭州310023 [3]浙江农林大学,杭州311300

出　　处：《林业资源管理》2019年第4期37-45,共9页Forest Resources Management

基　　金：浙江省重点研发计划(2017C02028);浙江省-中国林科院合作项目(2016SY08)

摘　　要：研究濒危物种榉树的潜在适生区及其对环境因子的响应状况将有助于榉树迁地保护和种群扩大工作。以浙江省生态监测样地数据库的21个含榉树样地分布数据为基础,采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS对榉树在浙江省的潜在分布区进行预测,并分析了其主导环境因子和最适范围。17次模拟的平均AUC值为0.891,说明模型模拟精度较高。结果显示榉树在浙江省的高适生区主要位于浙西的武义—遂昌一带,浙中的浦江、千岛湖流域附近,以及浙东沿海的宁波、舟山群岛、温州沿海等地,面积约0.6万km 2。降水量的季节性变化、坡度、最湿季平均气温、最干季平均气温等条件是影响榉树分布的主要气候环境因子,其中降水量的变化系数为30~42,坡度为3~20°,最湿季平均气温为14~21℃,最干季平均气温0~7℃。Studying the potential suitable habitats of endangered species Zelkova schneideriana and their response to environmental factors will be helpful to the work of site conservation and population expansion of Z.schneideriana.Based on a comprehensive survey data of 21 Z.schneideriana samples taken from Zhejiang ecological monitoring sample plots database,using ArcGIS and MaxEnt model adopted to predict its potential distribution area in Zhejiang.Then screen the dominant environmental factors and their optimal range.The mean AUC value of 17 simulations is 0.891,which indicated the model simulation has high precision.The result showed that the highly suitable growth area of Z.schneideriana in Zhejiang is mainly in the Wuyi—Suichang area in the west of Zhejiang,and Pujiang—Qiandaohu River basin,Ningbo—Zhoushan island,coastal area in Wenzhou and the surrounding area,the area is 6 thousand km 2.The MaxEnt show that precipitation seasonality(coefficient of variation),slope,mean air temperature of the wettest quarter and mean air temperature of the driest quarter are the main environmental factors that affect the distribution of Z.schneideriana.The most suitable range of them are 30~42 in precipitation seasonality(coefficient of variation),3~20°in slope,14~21℃in mean air temperature of the wettest quarter,0~7℃in mean air temperature of the driest quarter.

关 键 词：榉树 生态位模型 生态适宜区 分布 

分 类 号：S718.51[农业科学—林学]