基于M-C方法的复杂气井井筒完整性失效因素不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis of Wellbore Integrity Failure Factors Based on M-C Method for Complex Gas Wells

作　　者：刘铭刚 李勇[1] 王廷春[1] 万古军 高凯歌 逄铭玉[1] Liu Minggang;Li Yong;Wang Tingchun;Wan Gujun;Gao Kaige;Pang Mingyu(SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering,Shandong,Qingdao,266100)

机构地区：[1]中国石化青岛安全工程研究院

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2019年第8期44-48,共5页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：基于Monte-Carlo法对不同的随机性指标进行不确定性分析,得到影响复杂气井井筒完整性参数的随机概率分布情况,并给出相应的概率密度。研究表明:在工程和实验室样本下基于M-C方法得到的管柱材料参数、管柱强度、水泥环材料参数、水泥环强度和井筒围岩参数均符合Gaussian分布,且参数的不确定性分析结果受样本空间影响很大,样本区间越大,结果精度越高。研究成果可为复杂气井井筒的设计、安全风险评价提供理论和方法支持。In this paper,the uncertainty analysis of different random indexes based on Monte-Carlo method was carried out to obtain the random probability distribution of the wellbore integrity parameters affecting complex gas wells,and the corresponding probability density was given.The results showed that in engineering and laboratory samples,the string material parameters,string strength,cement ring material parameters,cement ring strength and wellbore surrounding rock parameters obtained by M-C method all conformed to the Gaussian distribution.The uncertainty analysis results were significantly affected by the sample space-the larger the sample interval was,the higher the accuracy was.The research results could provide theoretical and methodological support for wellbore design and safety risk assessment of complex gas wells.

关 键 词：复杂气井 井筒完整性 参数不确定性 MONTE-CARLO法 随机性 

分 类 号：TE3[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]