基于NDVI的2000-2016年青藏高原牧户草场覆盖度变化驱动力分析  

Driving force analysis of changes in grassland coverage on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on NDVI in 2000-2016

作　　者：李重阳 樊文涛 李国梅 高晶[1] 唐增[1] 宋仁德 LI Chong-yang;FAN Wen-tao;LI Guo-mei;GAO Jing;TANG Zeng;SONG Ren-de(State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems,College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Yushu Prefectural Grassland Workstation,Yushu 815000,China;Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Workstation of Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Yushu 815000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]青海省玉树藏族自治州草原工作站,青海玉树815099 [3]青海省玉树藏族自治州畜牧兽医工作站,青海玉树815099

出　　处：《草业学报》2019年第10期25-32,共8页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(lzujbky-2017-43,lzujbky-2017-k01,lzujbky-2017-it14);国家自然科学基金项目(41401472)资助

摘　　要：选取青藏高原5个省份共573块牧户草场,利用2000-2016年遥感、气象、社会经济等数据,计算牧户草场植被覆盖度,设定实证模型,综合分析确定了21世纪以来青藏高原牧户草场退化等级、各要素的变化趋势以及导致草场变化的主要驱动力。结果表明:研究区牧户草场退化面积占总面积的69%,以轻度退化为主;草场植被盖度的变化是自然和社会经济等因素相互作用的结果,在气候变化中,温度的升高和降水的增加对草场植被生长有正向的促进作用,而不合理的经济发展要素和人口密度的增加会引起草场植被盖度的进一步降低。此外,距离城市越近的草地植被盖度越低。从变化的机理来看,草地载畜量与植被盖度呈显著的负相关关系,超载放牧仍是导致青藏高原草地变化的最主要驱动力。In this study,we analyzed the driving forces underlying changes in grassland coverage on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.For these analyses,we used statistical data collected from 2000 to 2016 from 573 herdsmen’s pastures scattered across five provinces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.These data comprised remote sensing,meteorological,socio-economic,and other data.We used an empirical model to calculate the vegetation coverage of herdsmen’s pastures to analyze the degree of grassland degradation,the trends in various factors,and the key drivers of grassland change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the beginning of the 21st century.The results indicate that mild degeneration is dominant in the study area,with the area of degraded pasture accounting for 69%of the total area.The analyses indicated that the changes in grassland vegetation coverage are the result of interactions between natural and socio-economic factors:increased temperature and rainfall from climate change have positively affected the growth of grassland vegetation;whereas increases in economic development and population density have led,and will continue to lead,to decreases in grassland vegetation coverage.Furthermore,grassland vegetation coverage is continuing to decrease as the distance between neighboring cities decreases.In terms of the mechanisms of change,there is a significant negative correlation between the livestock carrying capacity of grassland and vegetation coverage,and overgrazing is still the key driver of grassland change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

关 键 词：青藏高原 草地变化 NDVI 驱动力 

分 类 号：S81[农业科学—畜牧学]