铁路货运流失客户挽留价值研究  

Research on railway freight customer churn retention value

作　　者：张斌[1,2] 彭其渊 刘帆洨[1] ZHANG Bin;PENG Qiyuan;LIU Fanxiao(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Business Development Bureaus,China Railway Beijing Group Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100860,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]中国铁路北京局集团公司经营开发部,北京100860

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2019年第9期2339-2344,共6页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科研计划重大课题(2016X008-J)

摘　　要：面对日趋激烈的货运市场竞争,为了更好地提供铁路货运客户流失管理,从而为铁路货运部门提供精准高效的货运流失客户挽留策略,结合铁路货运行业特征,在货运客户细分和货运客户流失预测的基础上,提出货运流失客户挽留价值的研究方法,从而为货运流失客户挽留策略的制定提供支撑。结合铁路货运特征,提出货运客户的可期货运价值;其次对铁路货运流失客户挽留策略的执行效果进行研究,提出货运流失客户挽留效果模型;之后提出货运流失客户挽留成本的计算方法;最后提出流失客户挽留价值模型。仿真实验结果表明:通过对挽留价值进行计算,可以校验挽留策略的执行效率;并且为货运流失客户挽留优先级的确定提供依据;针对具体细分类别的货运流失客户制定挽留策略具有更好的挽留效果和高成功率。In order to manage the loss of freight customer better,and provide the accurate and efficient retention strategy for the freight department,based on the characteristics of railway freight industry and freight customer subdivision and freight customer churn prediction,this paper put forward the research method of the retention value of freight customer churn,so as to provide support for the formulation of customer retention strategy for freight customer churn.Firstly,combining with the characteristics of railway freight transportation,this method put forward the period freight value of freight customer.Secondly,this paper studied the executive effect of the retention strategy for lost freight customer,and proposed the retention effect model for the lost freight customer.Then the calculation method of customer retention cost was put forward.Finally,the customer retention value model was proposed.The simulation results show the execution efficiency of the retention strategy can be verified and the retention priority of the losing freight customer can be determined by calculating the retention value.And it has better retention effect and high success rate to make retention strategy for the freight losing customer based on customer segmentation.

关 键 词：铁路运输 货运客户流失 客户细分 挽留策略 挽留价值 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]