中国实现碳减排双控目标的可行性及最优路径——能源结构优化的视角  

Feasibility and optimal pathway of China’s double targets for carbon reduction——The perspective of energy structure optimization

作　　者：王勇[1] 王颖 WANG Yong;WANG Ying(School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Postdoctoral Research Station,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学统计学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学博士后科研流动站,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2019年第10期4444-4455,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(18YJC910013);辽宁省教育厅项目(LN2019Q48);辽宁省财政科研基金项目(18B010)

摘　　要：基于能源结构优化视角对中国实现碳强度和碳峰值“双控”目标的可行性及最优路径进行分析.首先构建马尔科夫链和多目标优化模型,分别从自然演进、政策约束和成本约束角度预测能源消费结构;其次,将3种能源消费结构情景与3种经济发展情景结合,共得到9种综合情景下碳强度和碳峰值预测结果,判定各情景实现“双控”目标的可行性;最后,采用多属性决策模型分析“双控”目标的最优路径.结果表明,9种情景下,中国均可实现2020年和2030年的碳强度目标;然而,并非所有情景都能实现2030年碳排放达峰目标,经济发展速度与实现碳排放达峰目标的难易程度成反比.经济中速发展及减排政策约束下的能源结构调整情景是实现“双控”目标的最优路径,减排政策是“双控”目标顺利实现的关键所在.The feasibility and optimal pathway to achieve China’s“double control”targets of carbon intensity and carbon emissions peak from the perspective of energy structure optimization was explored in this paper.Firstly,the Markov chain model and multi-objective optimization model were used to forecast China’s energy consumption structure from the perspective of natural evolution,policy constraints and cost constraints.Secondly,three energy structure forecasting scenarios were combined with the three economic development scenarios to obtain prediction results of carbon intensities and carbon emissions under the nine scenarios,and the feasibility of each scenario to achieve the“double control”targets was analyzed.Finally,the multiple attribute decision model was used to select the optimal pathway to achieve the“double control”targets.The results showed that the targeted carbon intensity by 2020 and 2030 can be achieved differently in all scenarios.However,not all scenarios can achieve the carbon emission peak by 2030,and the speed of economic development was inversely proportional to the difficulty of achieving the carbon emission peak.Under the medium-speed economic development,a policy-constrained scenario was the optimal pathway for achieving the“double control”targets.The carbon emission reduction policies played a key role to the realization of the“double control”targets.

关 键 词：能源结构 碳强度 碳峰值 路径分析 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]