贸易便利化对中国丝绸出口的影响——来自中国与“一带一路”贸易伙伴间的经验证据  

Impact of trade facilitation on Chinese silk exports: empirical evidence from China and the “Belt and Road” trading partners

作　　者：任祎卓[1] 顾国达[2] REN Yizhuo;GU Guoda(Center for International Economic and Technical Cooperation,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Beijing 100086,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China)

机构地区：[1]工业和信息化部国际经济技术合作中心,北京100086 [2]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《丝绸》2019年第10期1-7,共7页Journal of Silk

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-18);商务部茧丝绸公共服务项目(ZZJL-ZB-033)

摘　　要：在构建贸易便利化指数的基础上,利用“一带一路”倡议58个伙伴与中国2006—2017年的面板数据,定量研究了前者贸易便利化对后者丝绸出口贸易的影响机制。结果显示,在样本机制中,贸易便利化指数的影响效应不仅为最正显著并呈正相关,而且经一系列稳健性检验还稳定可靠。此外,对于该机制的正“外部经济性”特征表现,“一带一路”伙伴的GDP亦非常显著,人口量一定显著;中国与“一带一路”伙伴的接壤、签订FTA,相对于双方的相应非接壤、未签订FTA,对该机制的效应亦分别正显著;而双方间地理距离的影响效应仍远未显示既有文献中“距离在消亡”现象。基于研究结论,提出了推动该机制发展的相关借鉴。Quantitative research was made on the influencing mechanism of trade facilitation of 58 partners along the“Belt and Road”route on Chinese silk exports using their panel data from 2006 to 2017on the basis of constructing the trade facilitation index.The results show that in the sample mechanism,the impact effect of the trade facilitation index is not only most significant and in positive correlation,but also turns to be robust and reliable via a series of robustness tests.In addition,for the positive“external economic”characteristics of the mechanism,the GDP of partners of the“Belt and Road”is also very significant,and their population is significant as well;that China borders have singed FTA with the partners is also significant to the effect of the mechanism.However,the effect of geographical distance between the two parties does not show the phenomenon of“distance in extinction”stated in the existing literatures.Based on the research conclusions,relevant references for promoting the development of this mechanism are proposed.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 贸易便利化 丝绸出口 影响因素 引力模型 

分 类 号：F724.78[经济管理—产业经济] S88-9[农业科学—特种经济动物饲养]