基于场景聚类分析的综合能源系统鲁棒运行策略  

Robust operation strategy of multi-energy system based on scenario clustering analysis

作　　者：刘志欣[1] 程林[2] 周章 万宇翔 胡雨时 董禹泽 张杨[1] 韦凌霄[1] LIU Zhi-xin;CHENG Lin;ZHOU Zhang;WAN Yu-xiang;HU Yu-shi;DONG Yu-ze;ZHANG Yang;WEI Ling-xiao(State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company,Beijing 100031,China;State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment,Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]国网北京市电力公司,北京100031 [2]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,清华大学电机系,北京100084

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2019年第10期9-19,共11页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(基于数字化储能的重要负荷抗电压暂降装置研制及应用,SGBJKF00YKJS18000)

摘　　要：清洁可再生能源充分消纳和综合能源高效利用将成为能源业发展趋势,然而可再生能源出力的波动性、跨属性能源调控的间接性,给系统运行策略制定和系统安全运行带来挑战。为避免由于预测误差对电网造成的不良影响,需要设计合理的运行策略,以保证综合能源系统的正常运行。为此,本文提出了一种基于场景聚类分析的综合能源系统鲁棒运行策略。首先建立了综合能源系统中各类能源转化设备数学模型以及光伏出力预测误差概率模型,通过场景聚类分析方法形成多种光伏的随机出力场景,并进一步建立了双层鲁棒优化模型,实现含有分布式光伏电站的综合能源系统的安全稳定运行。The full consumption of clean renewable energy and the comprehensive utilization of energy will become the development trend of the energy industry.However,the volatility of renewable energy output and the indirectness of cross-property energy regulation bring challenges to the system safety operation.To avoid the adverse impact of the prediction error on the power grid,it is necessary to design a reasonable operation strategy to ensure the normal operation of the multi-source energy system.This paper proposes a robust operation strategy for integrated energy systems based on scene clustering analysis.The mathematical model of various energy conversion equipment in the integrated energy system and the prediction error probability model of the PV output are established.The scene clustering analysis method is used to form a variety of PV random output scenarios,and a two-layer robust optimization model is further established to realize the safe and stable operation of the energy system with distributed photovoltaic power plant.

关 键 词：冷热电三联供 鲁棒运行 场景聚类 光伏预测 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]