投入产出网络视角下的全球价值链复杂性研究  

Research on the Complexity of Global Value Chain from the Perspective of Input-Output Network

作　　者：许英明[1] 邢李志[2] Xu Yingming;Xing Lizhi(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation,Beijing 100710,China;Department of Business Administration,School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院,北京100710 [2]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《工程研究（跨学科视野中的工程）》2019年第4期349-369,共21页JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING STUDIES

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金青年项目“‘一带一路’建设与国际产能合作关系的构建”（17ZGC010）

摘　　要：社会经济系统内部结构大尺度、多维度、多层次的特性构成了其宏观层面的复杂性,通过对系统内部结构信息的挖掘可以反映整个系统的功能特征或运行机理。作为测度复杂系统结构的理论与方法,复杂网络理论可以通过测度社会经济系统的结构性指标,刻画研究对象内部的结构特征,进而揭示系统内在层次结构与外在经济功能之间的复杂关系。采用国家间投入产出数据,基于复杂网络理论提取了全球经济系统的拓扑结构,从物理经济学的角度对各国家或地区的经济发展指标与系统结构测度指标进行相关性分析、层次性分析以及鲁棒性分析,从全球经济系统的宏观层面揭示了各国家或地区及其产业部门在全球价值链中的功能和地位,并根据反映全球经济系统结构性特征的全球产业影响力系数对不同情景下的经济体之间相互影响进行仿真模拟,从而对相关政策制定提供建设性意见。The macroscopical complexity of the socio-economic system derives from its intrinsically structural,large-scale,multi-dimensional,multi-layer,and functional characteristics.Furthermore,the operational mechanism can be reflected through an analysis of this hidden information.The complex network,the theory,and the method for measuring the structure of the complex system can describe the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the research object by measuring the structural indicators of the social and economic systems and revealing the complex relationship between the inner hierarchy and the external economic function.This paper explores the topological structure of the global value-chain by using an inter-country,input-output table based on the complex network theory to carry out an analysis of correlation,hierarchy,and robustness.The objective of the paper is to identify both national and industrial functions and status from the perspective of the global economic system and put forward relevant policy advice through simulation of the global industrial impact coefficient in different conditions.

关 键 词：全球经济系统 复杂网络理论 国家间投入产出表 马尔可夫过程 随机游走 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]