基于多元统计对婴幼儿奶粉销售的计量分析  

An Analysis of Impact of Sales Factors of Infant Formula Milk Powder on Volume of Sales Based on Multivariate Statistics

作　　者：季娜 闫云侠[2] JI Na;YAN Yun-xia(College of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;College of statistics and applied mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《内蒙古工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期315-320,共6页Journal of Inner Mongolia University of Technology：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11601001)

摘　　要：目前我国婴幼儿奶粉种类繁多,使得妈妈们难以选择合适的奶粉品牌.针对婴幼儿奶粉销量的影响因素及销量预测的问题,根据婴幼儿奶粉的销售记录,综合利用多元线性回归、主成分分析等方法,构建了婴幼儿奶粉销售模型,运用EVIEWS、MATLAB等软件求解,研究发现:消费者倾向于购买原产于澳洲和新西兰的价格为100~200元的桶装奶粉;品牌和奶源产地是影响婴幼儿奶粉销售最重要的因素,而价格影响较小,并构建婴幼儿奶粉销量预测模型,为婴幼儿奶粉的销售与购买提出合理建议.At present,there are many kinds of infant milk powder on the market in China,making it difficult for mothers to choose the proper milk powder brand.To gain a better understanding of how the sales factors affect sales forecasts,we build a sales factor model of infant milk powder sales based on infant milk powder sales records,integrating such methods as the multivariate linear regression and the principal component analysis.By the use of such software programs as EXCEL,EVIEWS and MATLAB,the study found that consumers tend to buy Australia and New Zealand milk powder products with the price range of RMB 100-200 per can.The study also indicated that brand and milk source area are the most important factors affecting the sales of infant milk powder while the price has a smaller impact.The infant milk powder sales forecast model will provide a guide for both the buyer and seller in their purchase and sale of infant milk powder.

关 键 词：奶粉销售的影响因素 多元统计 主成分分析 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]